A tale of two conferences

Jim McNaughty, the BBC Radio 4 journalist, was puzzled today by the ebulliance of the Tory party conference compared with Labour's conference last week. Labour are ahead in the polls. The Tory figures continue to flatline on 35 percent. But experienced commentators believed that the Tory conference felt like the party was expecting victory while Labour's conference had been an uncertain shambles. 

Miliband's fatuous speech may have something to do with it, while at least Tories can read autocues. But that seems a bit superficial! A more likely explanation (given that the main parties show little in their central policies - we will carry through austerity - we will save the NHS - that distinguishes them) is the shadow cast by the Scottish referendum. 

Despite Labour's official position in support of no, it is estimated that nearly a million previous Labour voters in Scotland voted yes. The Labour conference felt like the left in British society had just lost a key political fight and not at all as though the right had been held at the pass. The feeling, unlike the platform and Miliban's memory, was accurate. 

The Tories on the other hand sensed that the right in Britain had scored a major, if pyrrhic, victory. And that spurred them on, despite UKIP, in the belief that they could still win.

Feelings at party conferences are not significant in the broad political picture. But a certain sort of line in the sand has just been drawn across British political life for the next period; a line that shows where the new left in society is gathering and where the right will have to continue to make a stand.