What we might learn from the May elections

The European elections merit their own thorough study. What follows does not imply that the British developments are ‘specially’ British. Ultimately they are part of European and global trends but of course those trends combine in unique ways at any given point. The council and European Parliament elections held in Britain have their own characteristics, and they are not the ones that were expressed in Britain’s mainstream media. Indeed the media’s obsession with the rise or otherwise of UKIP, coupled in the broadsheet press and in the musings on Radio 4, with worry about the resurgence of the European right – and how pleased we should all be that we have Farage rather than Le Pen – are classic examples of the appearance of things contradicting the essence of the matter.

What is happening in the UK is a political crisis. The years of Coalition government to an extent have, up to now, covered up this crisis of establishment politics that has been maturing since Blaire’s premiership. It has taken an inordinate amount of time, but Britain’s universally and historically famed political stability – is losing its shape.

Before looking at the precise content of Britain’s current political crisis we might ask the question; what has provoked it? For this will surely give an insight to its specificities.  What has caused Britain’s political instability?

The answer is the deepening economic and political polarisation of society. There is growing disparity between the rich and the rest; between North and South; between London and the rest of Britain; between Scotland and the rest of the UK. (One note should be made regarding Scotland’s September 18 vote on independence in this context. Even if independence loses, the margins will be narrow, having the effect of holing any allegiance in Scotland to Westminster below the waterline.) Britain’s political class has never been more alienated from British society on the ground. And these polarizations work also within our institutions. The Labour Party, run by middle class, professional politicians are on a completely opposite journey to Britain’s rapidly evolving working class.

Turning back to the political character of Britain’s crisis, the focus on the success of UKIP looks at things from the wrong way round. What is interesting from any point of view is that UKIP’s vote was a couple of percentage points less than its equivalent vote which it received during the last council/euro elections. Yet its impact on the system was so much greater. This time for example the UKIP effect appeared to destroy the Liberals. (Not so. The Liberals are the most fragile and accessible and most obvious turncoats in the coalition. They have wiped out their own base in society.) UKIP will not form a government. But this time, because national politics are so brittle, it is likely that they have guaranteed another coalition government after the 2015 election. The general political crisis is so deep that even Britain’s failsafe ‘one past the post’ electoral system cannot hold back the tide. Mainland European coalition governments used to be a byword in British politics for continental instability and the wretched Presidential autocracies that therefore had become essential to run these benighted countries. Not any more.

The collapse of the popular vote in Britain mirrors the rest of Europe in the May elections (with some notable exceptions) and the signs are not good from the point of view of those that would seek some real alternatives to the consensus on austerity that stretches from the saloon bar racists that lead UKIP to Miliband. (Even Cruddas, erstwhile darling of what remains the of the left of the LP is sounding more like Farage on immigration these days.) The LP is committed to the Coalition cuts for the first two years of any new Labour government. The problem with seeing Labour as any kind of ‘alternative’ is that it has rooted itself more and more at the heart of the political and economic consensus that is now in crisis.

There are some serious forces that do face the political (and economic) crisis with a new face. The Green party in Britain have (albeit unevenly) radicalised in Britain. They certainly captured what there was of the radical vote available in the May elections and have advanced their councilors by 23 while increasing their MEPs to double the size of the Liberals. (The largest far left party effort in the council elections, the Trade Union and Socialist Coalition – TUSC – scored an average of 116 votes per candidate. And the euro wing, backed among others by the Morning Star and called No2EU, despite its 1980s hip nomenclature got nowhere.)

The national movement against austerity is another sign of an answer emerging to Britain’s political crisis. The Peoples Assembly has achieved its goal of uniting the major actions and campaigns against austerity. It has over 30,000 supporters and 100 branches. Solid Trade Union support has also emerged. A genuine mass movement is being born. Born into a period of significant political instability and change.