The Boris Brexit is over.

Yes. Because something else is about to start.

UK Prime Minister Boris has turned the final key and truly Trumped himself. He still holds, now at its height, a bloc of 39% of voters that support 'No Deal.' But Boris shares that 39% with Farage's Brexit Party. And the minority 39%, that Boris has been using to lead the whole of society - denouncing the Brexit 'surrender', fuelling active, public anger - is fraying.

A small part of it is the new Supreme Court ruling which stops Boris shutting Parliament. 49% of voters supported the court and 30% did not. The court was determined to keep the 'remain' door open on behalf of the City, the large corporations etc - but for the time being the court cuts down Boris's charge for outright victory.

Second, Boris's next ploy, which was to set up an immediate General Election, is now in the slow lane and in any case cannot happen before the October 31st. The number of voters that wanted an immediate election before October 31 was always well under 50%.

Finally Boris promised to 'die in a ditch 'if he did not get an exit from the EU by 31 October. And that too looks pleasingly possible. It certainly breaks Boris's main promise that he swore to his core support. That 39% core would not go away if there was a failure on the 31st, but they would split to Farage and, most importantly, they would cease to provide the political lead, behind Boris, across society in general.

There will be tricks and slights of hand before October 31 but the problems that have surfaced for Boris means that he is now desperate to get a 'deal'. Boris's secretive pals have always seen the possibility that getting a 'deal' is different to exiting the EU. They have always known that the bargaining with the EU could start after Britain's exit. But now that a quick election is probably delayed until later November - at the earliest. That would mean a lot of rough weather in the economy before the Election. An early 'deal', pre-November, now looks like it could delay the economic mess of a full Brexit and therefore provide a good chance of a Boris victory in the coming election.

Boris's 'deal', 10 pages of waffle if he's lucky, would have to shove the backstop over Northern Ireland and other key problems to 'guaranteed' futures. A great hullabaloo around Boris's plan, carefully keeping trade issues for the future, would try to re-set all those extreme brexiteers back together with the wider population that is completely exhausted with the Brexit argument, bringing them together as a new bloc that could back Boris and his made-up deal. If the economy still hangs on for a few months, a General Election over Xmas might then provide a Tory victory. Boris is out of his ditch and can then set about his version of Trumpington.

Or so he imagines. Times are changing and views are shifting.

Most of Britain's people are certainly exhausted with Brexit and want the whole mess to go away. Recently however, a there is a growing sense that new politics in Britain are desperately needed. Its first reflection is seen in the wide sense of failure of Britain's political class as a whole. Paradoxically, this has been picked up by both the Tory Party and by Labour. For example there is complete denial from Boris and the Tory Party in general that the negotiations with the EU will still be front and centre whatever happens or does not happen on October 31. The Tories are trying to win the race against Labour based on the prominence of their policies on the NHS, policing, and infrastructure. The difference with Labour is that they have begun to put a further proposition to the population on Brexit. The Tories lie and say that Brexit will be over by November 1st. But now Corbyn has yet again won over the Labour Conference, on a different plain. His proposal, besides the social reforms set out in the Labour conference, is a proposed reunification of the working class over Brexit.  

Boris to a large degree, Farage, and now the Lib Dems both in total error, are deeply inclined to continue to ramp up the Brexit hysteria and are thereby beginning to miss a growing mood. The most obvious evidence of this shift is the reaction to the Lib Dems now that they intend to bypass a referendum if they get into government! Their own grandees are faltering. Amongst other things, if the Lib Dem leaders press the Brexit button, and only the Brexit button, then they will need to explain on the doorstep why they are the Party who rejects the 2016 referendum without a vote! A significant point now often accepted by many of those who voted for Remain.

The Brexit pantomime is a wearing distraction.

What is really the main political issue in Britain today? It is surely the question, can a radical socialist party win the government? That is the real next period in British politics and it begins only weeks away. Frankly, the upshot of Brexit, so long as a temporary compromise can be settled, is neither here nor there, in that context. The number one issue is the unification of the working class, centred on the need for a shift in wealth and power in society. The fight with institutions, like the EU, can wait.

To win radical government, real and immediate dangers must be overcome right now. Boris must not become a settled PM. Otherwise a soft Brexit, another vote, deals after Brexit, none of it will count. The softest possible landing with the EU either way, through a friendly deal, a new vote etc, helps most, for the time being. But Boris's 'heroic' platform; 'out by Halloween - at all costs'; has to be stopped with or without his fake deal - not because it will mean lorry jams at Dover but because it will secure a Boris victory. Boris must be broken and his faction in society isolated. To do that Boris must fail and the unification of Brexit built.

Can the Labour Party carry through a radical socialist program? That's another question entirely.

Breaking up Britain's new right wing.

It is entirely possible that if Boris had managed to keep to his 'No Deal' ultimatum, then the EU might well have spawned a version of a deal that looked like more concessions to the UK. After all, the EU leadership has already 'proved', a hundred times over, to those considering the British route, what a fractious turmoil that exiting turns out to be! But Boris's 'deal', and especially his 'no deal', would both have amounted to a new austerity, another drastic attack on the British working class.

A political choice needed to be made.

Breaking down Boris's leadership is not 'clever politics'. It is not some tactical dance. It is a major, class issue. This is not because of his right-wing block of Tory and Farageist Brexiteers in the country, which barely count for 25 - 35% maximum of potential voters. It is not because of the potential lack of the Irish Backstop, which would inevitably have to involve Westminster control of Stormont - to the delight of the reactionary DUP by provoking the wreckage of the Good Friday Agreement, etc., etc. It is because Boris was beginning to win over the leadership of society.

Since the end of the 19th century the British Parliament has rarely played a decisive role in the real decisions regarding issues touching matters of wealth and power. It is therefore rare for Parliamentary figures to really lead society in the sense of creating a shared 'common sense' among the majority, even among those who may have had contrary ideas.

Such political leadership goes beyond a specific, minority bloc in society, and, as perhaps surprisingly, Lenin once wrote, beyond a single class. 'From the standpoint of Marxism the (working) class, so long as it renounces the idea of hegemony or fails to appreciate it, is not a class, or not yet a class, but a guild, or the sum total of guilds.' And while the British working class are not in a sea of peasants, the evolution of Britain's modern working class has yet to fully centre itself socially and politically, let alone fully regroup with its potential allies.

The point of Boris's potential across society was that he could take dramatic hold of a majority view at least inside the English working class on Brexit - as the starting point, the platform, for his defining leadership across all of decisive political matters. Most especially, as far as Boris is concerned, to hook a large section of the working class 'back', now semi-detached from the new radicalism of Corbyn's Labour Party via the predominant call 'to get Brexit done', into a renovated Thatcher/Trump/Tory scenario and existence.

Breaking this process up is part of a class struggle. The defeat of Boris and his remaining allies will begin to dissolve his leadership role and potentially reframe the content of an early General Election. A General Election before 31 October would be entirely framed by Boris's 'common sense' to get Brexit done - and that will be the overriding issue for the majority of English voters. Of course the ruling class will seek any avenue and be constantly searching to renew the cause of remaining in the EU. Although a National Government including the Corbyn part of the Labour Party is deeply unlikely. But the reality will grow; that some Brexits renew austerity. That really ending austerity means a soft Brexit at best. That Brexit, or not Brexit, is only a tiny part of the story of change that needs to come.

Don't over-estimate Brexit.

There is a growing vision of the deep and hidden manoeuvres swirling around the current British parliamentary struggles over Brexit. The substance of this idea is that Prime Minister Boris Johnson is following the tactics developed by his adviser Cummings. For example Johnson deliberately says 'shit' to Labour leader Corbyn in the House of Commons (shock, horror) when talking about Labour's economic plans.

This idea of who really runs Boris and who, malevolently, will do literally anything to gain Boris's goal of 'No Deal', has some truth. Boris's rudeness, his ruthless dispatch of the creaky old Tory grandees, his tricks pulled out of the hat, do have a 'mess it up; keep it wild' flavour. And that does not come from the words of Boris's headteacher at Eton when he speaks to the young gentlemen being sent off to run Britain. It comes from the studies made by Cummings, a mini version of Steve Bannerman. And so it is that the right-wing kernel of the new Tory shock troops can barely wait for 'No Deal' to get going with the British version of Trump.

But the substance of the crisis of Britain's Parliament does not lie with Parliament.  It is centred among the tens of millions that have suffered most intensely during a decade of austerity. And, at the moment, the removal of the Tory government and the victory of a Corbyn government, is the only serious opening for a root and branch alternative to the British's peoples misery and anger.

For now, this has been entirely tangled up with Brexit. Brexit has become the cover for the deep malaise of the British people. The energy and anger caused by two miserable decades as the rich got spectacularly richer and the poor's lives fell apart, has been swallowed by the fatuous strains of the UK's relationship with the EU.  

An example of the disoriented thinking that this has caused is shown when some argue that the radical Labour leadership should accept Boris's demand for a General Election before the fight for 'No Deal' is over. This is despite the possibility/probability that Boris would win the election hands down. Boris would win because he would say 'I want a final Brexit after three terrible years; Labour is stopping us.' Even if Labour promoted 'a more pro-worker's deal with the EU - but we need more time', type proposal, the sickened population of England, at least, when it comes to Brexit, would almost certainly give the election directly into Boris's hands, assuming that at least one misery would be over.

The idea that Labour should ignore the fight to stop a 'No Deal' Brexit and go immediately for Boris's election is partly to do with the simplistic view that the way you do politics is to start from the opposite of your enemy. Blair said it; therefore it must be wrong. In reality, simply putting a cross where your enemy puts a plus is a hopeless way to decide 'what is to be done'. Unfortunately a much deeper, studied analysis, rising to the level of real life, is crucial.

In the case of Labour's potential to form a government, it is essential to expose and break down the Boris/Cummings's fantasy that somehow austerity can be swept away because Brexit is resolved, in the pretence that the EU will disappear after October 31. But breaking down that powerful feeling depends on the concrete failure of Boris's initiative. Argument on the doorsteps will not, itself, be anything like enough. Boris's 'dream' has to be physically broken, before the active political feelings of millions of people currently aroused by the political crisis, simply return to indifference as a consequence of the difficulties of daily life - or worse.

Here we come to the essence of the matter. It is vital that 'No Deal' fails, because 'No Deal' is the new austerity in Britain. And it is important that there is a 'soft' Brexit deal. By itself of course it will do little to damage the role of the EU, its corruption and its institutions, essentially propping up globalisation, even in a Britain which leaves the EU. Trade deals etc will still point in the wrong direction for the new economy that Britain has a chance of building. But most important of all is that Boris must be busted, whatever the Brexit outcome. And that cannot be done unless his core policy is smashed. That is the decisive next step and the Corbyn Labour Party must focus on that issue first and foremost, without restraint.

Brexit starts after October.

Two apparently key events will decide the next stage of Britain's expanding crises. The most obvious one, and the one that has just put Boris Johnson on his throne, is that Britain is shelving the EU on 30 October. The second, which is the real meat in the sandwich, is the coming General Election.

These two events will set the future for the UK. Except that one of them; Boris's great promise to the people who are sick to death with the EU whether they were 'leavers' or 'remainers' - that the UK is finished with the EU - turns out to be 'fake news' (in the delightful terms used by Boris's own coach.) 

The idea that the UK (or for that matter, the EU) will stop organising trade etc., after the 'No Deal Exit' is fatuous. That's when the real negotiations will start. There is even the chance that Boris will get an EU 'deal' before the end of October. It is truly absurd, as some of the media correspondents and old Tory gurus would have it, to expect the EU will insist on some moral rejection of their trade rather than deal the cash. The EU has already got its main result. The UK's pathetic performance, the total collapse of its long term reputation of political savvy across the world, has done the damage that the EU needed to prevent any further break up in its own camp, at least for the next few years. After October 30 the EU will ferociously demand a deal from the UK. And Boris will accept it - if he's still around.

The reality is that Boris's Brexit will just be be the start of the negotiations with the EU, under conditions where there has been a considerable shift in the relation of forces between the two contenders. Brexit does not finish on October 30. When the Brexiteers cheers finally fade away, that's when it all starts. 

And an early General Election? Well, here's a gap even smaller than the number of days offered to MPs to stop 'No Deal'. The next General Election, which will effect the real political and economic future of Britain, will instantly follow October 30 - whether MPs manage to block Brexit or not. If Boris is blocked he will call the election 'for Brexit.' If he gets it through, he will call the election on the immediate effect of his 'successful' promise (before the roof falls in.) 

That is the big game. The election, believes Boris, is the critical issue for his own future because it is the most important issue for Britain's economic and political elite. If he can break the prospect of a radical Labour Government then he opens the renovation of the Tory Party as the political instrument of the ruling class once more. (So long as his victory is big enough in terms of the number of MPs, he will also try to dump his some of his more manic, Brexit-believers.) 

Polls all show that Boris's Tories are now 5 or 7% above Labour. But both Labour and the Tories are being bitten from the margins. The current 18% for the Lib Dems is shaky, particularly after its leader rejected Corbyn's place as temporary Prime Minister if the Tory government was voted down. (Even the Tory grandee Kenneth Clark was for it.) Similarly, Farage's 14% is needed for the Tories to do better than their current, tiny, jiggered, majority. But the 'science' of polling is practically meaningless in Britain, as was clear in the last election. 

The substantial issue of the coming election partly lies with the ability (or lack of it) of the leadership and of the conference of the Labour Party, ideally promoting mounting mass action against Boris across the country and building key alliances which presents a popular, practical and attractive future.  Boris's spray of a few £millions, plus a false end to Brexit, is not a future. It is a Trumpite disaster. The future is a different economy, because the one that Britain has doesn't work; it is concentration on health, education, welfare and redistribution as the key jobs of government and it is stopping getting into Trump's wars and fights across the globe.

The current crop of Labour MPs, even including a hopeful new selection, will not be enough as a large number remain who are hostile to all things radical and socialist. They hang on to the Blairite history, where it was supposed that all classes, in practice mainly the rich, were well supported. Besides these MPs, more dangerous is the fact that the general population is not receiving an alternative message - one that stands against Boris's bombast. If Labour starts setting up concrete agreements now, particularly with the Scottish Nationalists and the Greens, that would make a radical future seem far more real. Support for the ridiculously under-represented Green Party requires a large-scale Labour outreach to them and an open, publicly-shared support in common for a new green economy. Millions of young people see the centre of their political lives in a battle to be green. Equally, the dissolution of the House of Lords would allow for the great cities and their leaders to build a new institution that raises democracy among local people. All of these steps and others, starting now, would demonstrate powerful  images of a different, better society which everybody can understand. 

Mass-action and a radical Labour, projecting a new version of the sort of country (and countries) that could be won by millions of ordinary people across the whole of the UK, will build a new vision in society. That is yet to be won. There needs to be a different picture of the future in the countries of the UK. Radical Labour and its allies need to de-centre Dunkirk and the all the other remnants of Empire, and create a new majority in society. In turn a new majority will help a new unity among the working class and its allies that can put Brexit in its proper place - with Brexit measured as a part and only a part of the much wider future that needs to be constructed. These are essential goals to be won through mass action and political clarity. 

If Boris wins and gets through, he will start failing very, very fast, both inside his party and outside in society. And then it will be the fight against fascism that will become the priority.