Brexit starts after October.

Two apparently key events will decide the next stage of Britain's expanding crises. The most obvious one, and the one that has just put Boris Johnson on his throne, is that Britain is shelving the EU on 30 October. The second, which is the real meat in the sandwich, is the coming General Election.

These two events will set the future for the UK. Except that one of them; Boris's great promise to the people who are sick to death with the EU whether they were 'leavers' or 'remainers' - that the UK is finished with the EU - turns out to be 'fake news' (in the delightful terms used by Boris's own coach.) 

The idea that the UK (or for that matter, the EU) will stop organising trade etc., after the 'No Deal Exit' is fatuous. That's when the real negotiations will start. There is even the chance that Boris will get an EU 'deal' before the end of October. It is truly absurd, as some of the media correspondents and old Tory gurus would have it, to expect the EU will insist on some moral rejection of their trade rather than deal the cash. The EU has already got its main result. The UK's pathetic performance, the total collapse of its long term reputation of political savvy across the world, has done the damage that the EU needed to prevent any further break up in its own camp, at least for the next few years. After October 30 the EU will ferociously demand a deal from the UK. And Boris will accept it - if he's still around.

The reality is that Boris's Brexit will just be be the start of the negotiations with the EU, under conditions where there has been a considerable shift in the relation of forces between the two contenders. Brexit does not finish on October 30. When the Brexiteers cheers finally fade away, that's when it all starts. 

And an early General Election? Well, here's a gap even smaller than the number of days offered to MPs to stop 'No Deal'. The next General Election, which will effect the real political and economic future of Britain, will instantly follow October 30 - whether MPs manage to block Brexit or not. If Boris is blocked he will call the election 'for Brexit.' If he gets it through, he will call the election on the immediate effect of his 'successful' promise (before the roof falls in.) 

That is the big game. The election, believes Boris, is the critical issue for his own future because it is the most important issue for Britain's economic and political elite. If he can break the prospect of a radical Labour Government then he opens the renovation of the Tory Party as the political instrument of the ruling class once more. (So long as his victory is big enough in terms of the number of MPs, he will also try to dump his some of his more manic, Brexit-believers.) 

Polls all show that Boris's Tories are now 5 or 7% above Labour. But both Labour and the Tories are being bitten from the margins. The current 18% for the Lib Dems is shaky, particularly after its leader rejected Corbyn's place as temporary Prime Minister if the Tory government was voted down. (Even the Tory grandee Kenneth Clark was for it.) Similarly, Farage's 14% is needed for the Tories to do better than their current, tiny, jiggered, majority. But the 'science' of polling is practically meaningless in Britain, as was clear in the last election. 

The substantial issue of the coming election partly lies with the ability (or lack of it) of the leadership and of the conference of the Labour Party, ideally promoting mounting mass action against Boris across the country and building key alliances which presents a popular, practical and attractive future.  Boris's spray of a few £millions, plus a false end to Brexit, is not a future. It is a Trumpite disaster. The future is a different economy, because the one that Britain has doesn't work; it is concentration on health, education, welfare and redistribution as the key jobs of government and it is stopping getting into Trump's wars and fights across the globe.

The current crop of Labour MPs, even including a hopeful new selection, will not be enough as a large number remain who are hostile to all things radical and socialist. They hang on to the Blairite history, where it was supposed that all classes, in practice mainly the rich, were well supported. Besides these MPs, more dangerous is the fact that the general population is not receiving an alternative message - one that stands against Boris's bombast. If Labour starts setting up concrete agreements now, particularly with the Scottish Nationalists and the Greens, that would make a radical future seem far more real. Support for the ridiculously under-represented Green Party requires a large-scale Labour outreach to them and an open, publicly-shared support in common for a new green economy. Millions of young people see the centre of their political lives in a battle to be green. Equally, the dissolution of the House of Lords would allow for the great cities and their leaders to build a new institution that raises democracy among local people. All of these steps and others, starting now, would demonstrate powerful  images of a different, better society which everybody can understand. 

Mass-action and a radical Labour, projecting a new version of the sort of country (and countries) that could be won by millions of ordinary people across the whole of the UK, will build a new vision in society. That is yet to be won. There needs to be a different picture of the future in the countries of the UK. Radical Labour and its allies need to de-centre Dunkirk and the all the other remnants of Empire, and create a new majority in society. In turn a new majority will help a new unity among the working class and its allies that can put Brexit in its proper place - with Brexit measured as a part and only a part of the much wider future that needs to be constructed. These are essential goals to be won through mass action and political clarity. 

If Boris wins and gets through, he will start failing very, very fast, both inside his party and outside in society. And then it will be the fight against fascism that will become the priority. 

The future politics of Britain

Britain is experiencing a farce. This is Act 2 and it is provided by Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt. They are trying to win the votes of the richest, whitest, oldest, most male and the smallest, mainstream party in the world. Potentially, 75,001 Tories will make Hunt or Johnson Britain's next Prime Minister - in a country of 66 million.

Hunt constantly calls himself 'an entrepreneur' because a lot of business (mainly men) are Tory Party members and they have the vote. (They also run Britain's Rotary clubs and the Freemasons.) Hunt's claim to be an entrepreneur comes from his three business failures, followed by access to his father's resources which, as his father was an Admiral, ended up providing for a 'jolly good' fourth shot at 'entrepreneuring'. Finally, this meant Hunt could grab £14 million for himself.

Hunt was that very typical sort of British 'entrepreneur' that repetitively fails. This of course results in loads of dumped employees and living on the edge of criminal debts. Then, when Hunt finally succeeded, he sells his fledgling company to a big corporation for all the money he can get. And Hunt is now free from any unpleasant labour. He can share his exceptional experiences with the world and manage the rest of us without petty distractions.

Hunt told the BBC's senior political editor recently that he had wanted to be PM for 30 years! That means he decided his political future at age 22. (Which was somewhere around the first or maybe the second business failure.) His own squirmy glee at his announcement in the interview suddenly worried him and so he tried instead to look amused.

Hunt's main political claim to fame was his time as Health Minister and his attack on junior doctors which has led to the worst results in the NHS health delivery since targets were set. Unsurprisingly perhaps - because he was described by many NHS doctors as the worst Health Minister in its history. Maybe his early judgement of the NHS, when he wrote a co-production of a pamphlet entitled  'Direct Democracy: An Agenda For A New Model Party' in 2005, which called for the de-nationalisation of the NHS, explains this, his first, major, political failure. Sadly, even an Admiral can't sort that out. (Although it is perhaps noticeable that Hunt is now proposing a big money hike for the armed forces.)

In other words Hunt is a deep-down Tory stereotype, with a doubtful past and whose main fuel is ambition.

And then there is Boris. Unlike Hunt he is a well known political pop-star (who manages to have less ideas than Trump!) Because he is well known and a lively figure he sits perfectly in Act 2 of Britain's political farce. It is not necessary to describe his characteristics or his history because all of it is well known. His attraction to those participating in Britain's farce so far is that when he was 5 he wanted to be 'king of the world! 17 years ahead of Hunt. He's tubby, like Churchill, and the serious Tories hope that he's funny enough to stop the victory of Corbyn's Labour Party in a General Election. Billy Bunter has taken over the 6th Form common room at Greyfriers /Eton /Oxford/ the establishment. Yarroo!

These are the 'Punch and Judy' who are leading in Act 2.

What was Act 1? Act 1 started with the Brexit Referendum and ended with the political death of Mrs May. Act 1 turned the Tory agony over membership of the EU into the prevailing issue across the whole country. Before Act 1 really got started, the main issues in British politics were the rise of Corbyn into the leadership of the Labour Party and its novel left-facing direction; the overturn of the Tory snap election in 2017, and the huge, social support for Labour's new Manifesto. And then followed the shock of the Grenfell fire, which underlined a decade of austerity and the years of anti-government anger, which had started to show in the streets. All of this, the politics and the public action, was replaced in 2017/18 by the megaphonic noise of Brexit, ballooned into the whole of society, starting from the Tory government's particular turmoil.

And the Act 3 to come? It is rare indeed for a farce to provide unique developments at the end of its show. The audience are waiting for a solution that, in their heart of hearts, they know is coming. Normally the characters and the events of the farce are turned on their head, with the effect of making all come right. Alas, Britain's political farce cannot continue. Economic and political forces are too powerful to allow the show to go on. Britain's political farce is about to blow up.

Act 3 and the Westminster theatre will therefore start disintegrating in an indisputable war between the remnants of a ragged Tory government, topped by its new PM, besieged by Farage and the new right, all mobilising against the Labour Party in England and Wales; the SNP in Scotland and the rise of Republicanism in Northern (and Southern) Ireland. The weakness of the Westminster government and the strength of the government's opponents means an early General Election. Either immediately this year with the breakdown caused by 'No Deal', or as the Brexit agony deepens, more and more effecting the 'insecuriate' UK population, the current Westminster government will fall. And as the Peterborough bi-election already shows, Labour has a good chance of breaking through the dominance of Brexit and restoring the prominence of its social program, which challenges the social and economic malaise, at least in England. In any event, a Johnson Tory government which is constructed to deliver a catastrophe, will not stand.

As the current political farce collapses, two further, interwoven, developments will, in one form or another, certainly rise.

First, any Labour Party led government will finally fully face its class contradictions as the Brexit wind blows in its different directions. That means most of its MPs will finally refuse to carry out Labour's social and economic program - because it is too difficult, because business is not yet ready etc etc. On the other hand most of Labour members and some of the Corbyn supporters in Parliament are likely to fight to carry through Labour's Manifesto. But even parts of Labour's left will believe that 'Labour unity' is more important than Labour's program. The previous Brexit Westminster has also energised more Labour MPs to pursue their 'independence', read defend their personal seat in Westminster. So the regroupment of a class struggle Labour could be very small - at least in Parliament. The best possible outcome from this process depends on the second of the two developments.

The early Grenfell spirit desperately needs restoring. And among the growing chaos of Westminster that spirit has the new possibility of connecting to the lead shown by the Glasgow women fighting their local authority for their equal pay, to the battles against the corporations who deny workers rights, to the movement that is growing against racism and fascism. Action by millions, including those MPs willing and able to carry out a radical social and economic program that would also ally with anyone, from any party and none, and supported Labour's program in action - could change Britain's politics both inside and outside Westminster.

It is the failure of the Westminster Parliament in the first quarter century since the millennium that is now creating Britain's political future. As Britain bumps and grinds its way past Brexit so the real possibilities begin to arise. Britain can become a series of small and medium style countries, with new, genuine and humble democracies, involving all, focusing their priorities on the daily needs of the people. And grateful that the wretched Empire is really and finally over.