Is Keir Starmer for you?

Sir Keir Starmer (SK) gave a 'zoom' speech to the British people on Thursday the 18th of February. The speech got the expected proclaim from the usual corners in the traditional parliamentary Labour party and, more recently, the new LP officials who are currently smashing up what remains of the left-Labour Constituency parties. SK taunted Tory Boris, repeating his sad commentary about the Prime Minister's failure in the first half of Covid. And he described for the 100th time that the Tories were more interested in money than in the 'new' contract that SK was now about to present - his combined efforts uniting business, the workers and a 'good' (SK) type government. SK does not want people to get poorer. He is very sad about the poor. So, SK is going to hold on to peoples own money, make sure there are many homes to buy, and offer government bonds so that the investors are ok and the poor can keep all their money in government savings! Would you credit it?

He went further. Harold Wilson had taught SK that Labour was all about 'the soul.' And Clement Attlee had been successful because he had worked together with society (just like SK wants) at a really difficult moment. And so it went on - the repetitive drivel, offered by yet another Labour politician who's dad worked on the shop floor and who made it clear that you had to come together with labour and business and work with a good government. What a novelty. The minor change away from the 'bus-driver dads' that seem to litter the references of would-be Labour MPs, did not provide any relief. SK managed his public babble about his family - particularly embarrassing.

Clement Attlee won a Labour government because millions had beaten Hitler and because he would use that potential momentum to build the NHS. The NHS was mentioned by SK. But not mentioned were the removals of the great private moguls of the day (who offered no future investment - just personal profits) and which were replaced instead by nationalised transport, coal, steel etc; covering the heart of British industry. Amazingly SK seemed somehow to have forgotten the two previous, popular Labour Manifesto's in 2017 and 19, which were prominently proposing social ownership in various industries - for the same reasons that were prevalent in 1945 - that concentrated wealth is not being distributed and production is not progressing 

Harold Wilson's main 'achievement' was to try and fight the unions but slyly - because British capital was then on a decade-long investment strike and because the Tories had been beaten when they attacked the miners and failed to win the election. Sadly, Wilson did not resolve the crisis by challenging capital. Like the Tory Heath, Wilson failed as well (and he also appeared to have no soul whatsoever.) As for SK's dad, you might have thought that he could expect his son, with the name that he had been given, to offer something beyond government bonds and private homes - for the poor!  

Since his 18 Feb., speech, SK has gone on to support Tory Boris recommending that there should be no increase in Corporation tax after Covid (although some Tories and a few more Labour MPs, in shame, have forced a certain step back.) And, most recently, SK has sworn that Labour would press the nuclear button with full gusto. With the unspoken denial of Attlee's main economic policy, with a Wilson type (non) soul, and his dad's supposed desire for getting it all together on the shop-floor, SK has got nowhere. He has even managed to drop the public's devastated memory of the Tories first stage of Covid.

The UK is now in the third stage of Covid. This new stage has to be the beginnings of the new economy and politics, required to deal with one of the most catastrophic crises across the world, and particularly as a large country in the West, with one of the largest proportional death roles. So far SK offers a poor version of an already declining Labour Party. What is needed is the greatest, most bold measures - requiring a change of politics based on a new democracy; regular and prepared referenda; national and local independence; and with economics; based on the distribution of wealth and social production. KS is nowhere near any of this. His world is firmly locked in the dwindling past. Normally Labour would just meander on. Today, KS and the bulk of his MPs have got absolutely nothing to offer anybody about the avalanche just ahead. It is the lowest ebb of the remains of British social democracy. It will not participate in the UK's politics and economics in next decade.

The future politics of Britain

Britain is experiencing a farce. This is Act 2 and it is provided by Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt. They are trying to win the votes of the richest, whitest, oldest, most male and the smallest, mainstream party in the world. Potentially, 75,001 Tories will make Hunt or Johnson Britain's next Prime Minister - in a country of 66 million.

Hunt constantly calls himself 'an entrepreneur' because a lot of business (mainly men) are Tory Party members and they have the vote. (They also run Britain's Rotary clubs and the Freemasons.) Hunt's claim to be an entrepreneur comes from his three business failures, followed by access to his father's resources which, as his father was an Admiral, ended up providing for a 'jolly good' fourth shot at 'entrepreneuring'. Finally, this meant Hunt could grab £14 million for himself.

Hunt was that very typical sort of British 'entrepreneur' that repetitively fails. This of course results in loads of dumped employees and living on the edge of criminal debts. Then, when Hunt finally succeeded, he sells his fledgling company to a big corporation for all the money he can get. And Hunt is now free from any unpleasant labour. He can share his exceptional experiences with the world and manage the rest of us without petty distractions.

Hunt told the BBC's senior political editor recently that he had wanted to be PM for 30 years! That means he decided his political future at age 22. (Which was somewhere around the first or maybe the second business failure.) His own squirmy glee at his announcement in the interview suddenly worried him and so he tried instead to look amused.

Hunt's main political claim to fame was his time as Health Minister and his attack on junior doctors which has led to the worst results in the NHS health delivery since targets were set. Unsurprisingly perhaps - because he was described by many NHS doctors as the worst Health Minister in its history. Maybe his early judgement of the NHS, when he wrote a co-production of a pamphlet entitled  'Direct Democracy: An Agenda For A New Model Party' in 2005, which called for the de-nationalisation of the NHS, explains this, his first, major, political failure. Sadly, even an Admiral can't sort that out. (Although it is perhaps noticeable that Hunt is now proposing a big money hike for the armed forces.)

In other words Hunt is a deep-down Tory stereotype, with a doubtful past and whose main fuel is ambition.

And then there is Boris. Unlike Hunt he is a well known political pop-star (who manages to have less ideas than Trump!) Because he is well known and a lively figure he sits perfectly in Act 2 of Britain's political farce. It is not necessary to describe his characteristics or his history because all of it is well known. His attraction to those participating in Britain's farce so far is that when he was 5 he wanted to be 'king of the world! 17 years ahead of Hunt. He's tubby, like Churchill, and the serious Tories hope that he's funny enough to stop the victory of Corbyn's Labour Party in a General Election. Billy Bunter has taken over the 6th Form common room at Greyfriers /Eton /Oxford/ the establishment. Yarroo!

These are the 'Punch and Judy' who are leading in Act 2.

What was Act 1? Act 1 started with the Brexit Referendum and ended with the political death of Mrs May. Act 1 turned the Tory agony over membership of the EU into the prevailing issue across the whole country. Before Act 1 really got started, the main issues in British politics were the rise of Corbyn into the leadership of the Labour Party and its novel left-facing direction; the overturn of the Tory snap election in 2017, and the huge, social support for Labour's new Manifesto. And then followed the shock of the Grenfell fire, which underlined a decade of austerity and the years of anti-government anger, which had started to show in the streets. All of this, the politics and the public action, was replaced in 2017/18 by the megaphonic noise of Brexit, ballooned into the whole of society, starting from the Tory government's particular turmoil.

And the Act 3 to come? It is rare indeed for a farce to provide unique developments at the end of its show. The audience are waiting for a solution that, in their heart of hearts, they know is coming. Normally the characters and the events of the farce are turned on their head, with the effect of making all come right. Alas, Britain's political farce cannot continue. Economic and political forces are too powerful to allow the show to go on. Britain's political farce is about to blow up.

Act 3 and the Westminster theatre will therefore start disintegrating in an indisputable war between the remnants of a ragged Tory government, topped by its new PM, besieged by Farage and the new right, all mobilising against the Labour Party in England and Wales; the SNP in Scotland and the rise of Republicanism in Northern (and Southern) Ireland. The weakness of the Westminster government and the strength of the government's opponents means an early General Election. Either immediately this year with the breakdown caused by 'No Deal', or as the Brexit agony deepens, more and more effecting the 'insecuriate' UK population, the current Westminster government will fall. And as the Peterborough bi-election already shows, Labour has a good chance of breaking through the dominance of Brexit and restoring the prominence of its social program, which challenges the social and economic malaise, at least in England. In any event, a Johnson Tory government which is constructed to deliver a catastrophe, will not stand.

As the current political farce collapses, two further, interwoven, developments will, in one form or another, certainly rise.

First, any Labour Party led government will finally fully face its class contradictions as the Brexit wind blows in its different directions. That means most of its MPs will finally refuse to carry out Labour's social and economic program - because it is too difficult, because business is not yet ready etc etc. On the other hand most of Labour members and some of the Corbyn supporters in Parliament are likely to fight to carry through Labour's Manifesto. But even parts of Labour's left will believe that 'Labour unity' is more important than Labour's program. The previous Brexit Westminster has also energised more Labour MPs to pursue their 'independence', read defend their personal seat in Westminster. So the regroupment of a class struggle Labour could be very small - at least in Parliament. The best possible outcome from this process depends on the second of the two developments.

The early Grenfell spirit desperately needs restoring. And among the growing chaos of Westminster that spirit has the new possibility of connecting to the lead shown by the Glasgow women fighting their local authority for their equal pay, to the battles against the corporations who deny workers rights, to the movement that is growing against racism and fascism. Action by millions, including those MPs willing and able to carry out a radical social and economic program that would also ally with anyone, from any party and none, and supported Labour's program in action - could change Britain's politics both inside and outside Westminster.

It is the failure of the Westminster Parliament in the first quarter century since the millennium that is now creating Britain's political future. As Britain bumps and grinds its way past Brexit so the real possibilities begin to arise. Britain can become a series of small and medium style countries, with new, genuine and humble democracies, involving all, focusing their priorities on the daily needs of the people. And grateful that the wretched Empire is really and finally over.

A critical moment for Britain

The British Prime Minister, Teresa May, shuffles towards her Brexit deal with the EU (see Blog 28 September. 'The British Prime Minister May will probably agree some half-baked plan from Brussels that supposedly will continue to be discussed after next March.')

Among a series of concessions, May will accept the EU Customs Union - which allows the EU control of all of Britain's trade matters - on a 'temporary basis.' Tory cabinet members are turning themselves in knots trying to define 'temporary' without suggesting a definite ending. But, in the end, everything is temporary. A predictable upheaval in the Tory Party both inside and outside Parliament is now underway (again.) We have apparently reached 44 letters against May, handed over to the ridiculous Tory 1922 Committee, and only 4 more are required for her to have to face election for the leadership of the Party. But May's future is not the key question.

The critical issue for British politics, now, is what is going to happen to the Labour Party.

The British newspaper 'The Independent' published a story on the internet (Sunday 14 October) that, if true, will begin the real destruction of the Labour Party. Here is a selection of quotes from its news.
'Multiple Labour MPs have told the Independent they are prepared to support the Brexit agreement Teresa May hopes to bring back from Brussels, boosting the PM's chances of forcing it through parliament.' ... 'even if, as expected, Jeremy Corbyn orders his party to oppose it.' ... 'at least 15 could rebel against Mr Corbyn ... enough to tip the balance on the Commons in favour of the deal.'

Gareth Snell, MP for Stoke Central, Ruth Smeeth MP, from Stoke North and Carolyn Flint, MP for Don Valley are all mentioned in the article as holding these views.  Other Labour MPs, the Independent continues, are considering abstention.

The Labour Party as a whole, together with its membership, its union affiliates and its MPs, has taken a position at its September conference. Conference voted to reject any Brexit deal without the 6 conditions the Party sees as essential for the well being and rights of the majority of people in Britain. In the (up to now likely) event of the defeat of May's dismal plan in Parliament, Labour would force a General Election against austerity.  If the Tories decided to hang on to prevent a General Election, Labour would then call for a new Peoples' vote, with 'all options on the table'.

If a group of Labour MPs vote for May's EU deal they are breaking from their Party's decision, they are supporting an anti-working class 'deal' with the EU and they are ensuring the continuation of a vicious, pro-austerity government. Why? Because they put their continued presence in Parliament before the desperate need to put an end to the destruction of millions of peoples lives and future. But that goes without saying. More accurately, they will be definitively attacking the working class base of the Labour Party at the precise moment when its potential in society is opening out.

The Labour leadership across Parliament and the unions have systematically sought to bring any working class rebellion back into the system's fold, across the entire history of the Labour Party. What is different today is that the new, working-class base of Labour have broken into Labour's traditional leadership and begun a new movement that potentially challenges capitalism. This is a major political advance in British society. If/when Labour MPs vote for the May's poisonous mess with the EU, they will reverse that process, maintain an austerity government, further dividing the working class on Brexit, sewing nationalist seeds of disorientation as a result - and likely usher in a new radical right wing under Boris Johnston.

The fundamental class division between the the historical base of Labour support and its traditional leadership will then explode. The upheaval will take the form of the Parliamentary disassociation of Labour MPs from the Party's leadership and its new base - create the inherent inability of establishing a Labour government in that context - and thereby dissolve Labour's current formation.

What, as some socialists in the past have asked, is to be done?

The current base and the current leadership of the Labour Party must not be sucked back into the Parliamentary melee that will boil and bluster away in Parliament following the May deal and its Labour defenders. On the contrary; the new and critical Labour forces must sharpen their political edge by rallying the working class - in and across society. Whatever happens, the austerity government must fall. And that means it must be torn down by any and by all means necessary. Leavers and remainers, trade unionists and 'casual' workers, north and south have to be brought together, to regroup, bring down the government and stop the right wing chaos created by the new Tories. Success (or otherwise) will now have to come from society, not from Parliament.