Friday 6 September 2019

Don't over-estimate Brexit.

There is a growing vision of the deep and hidden manoeuvres swirling around the current British parliamentary struggles over Brexit. The substance of this idea is that Prime Minister Boris Johnson is following the tactics developed by his adviser Cummings. For example Johnson deliberately says 'shit' to Labour leader Corbyn in the House of Commons (shock, horror) when talking about Labour's economic plans.

This idea of who really runs Boris and who, malevolently, will do literally anything to gain Boris's goal of 'No Deal', has some truth. Boris's rudeness, his ruthless dispatch of the creaky old Tory grandees, his tricks pulled out of the hat, do have a 'mess it up; keep it wild' flavour. And that does not come from the words of Boris's headteacher at Eton when he speaks to the young gentlemen being sent off to run Britain. It comes from the studies made by Cummings, a mini version of Steve Bannerman. And so it is that the right-wing kernel of the new Tory shock troops can barely wait for 'No Deal' to get going with the British version of Trump.

But the substance of the crisis of Britain's Parliament does not lie with Parliament.  It is centred among the tens of millions that have suffered most intensely during a decade of austerity. And, at the moment, the removal of the Tory government and the victory of a Corbyn government, is the only serious opening for a root and branch alternative to the British's peoples misery and anger.

For now, this has been entirely tangled up with Brexit. Brexit has become the cover for the deep malaise of the British people. The energy and anger caused by two miserable decades as the rich got spectacularly richer and the poor's lives fell apart, has been swallowed by the fatuous strains of the UK's relationship with the EU.  

An example of the disoriented thinking that this has caused is shown when some argue that the radical Labour leadership should accept Boris's demand for a General Election before the fight for 'No Deal' is over. This is despite the possibility/probability that Boris would win the election hands down. Boris would win because he would say 'I want a final Brexit after three terrible years; Labour is stopping us.' Even if Labour promoted 'a more pro-worker's deal with the EU - but we need more time', type proposal, the sickened population of England, at least, when it comes to Brexit, would almost certainly give the election directly into Boris's hands, assuming that at least one misery would be over.

The idea that Labour should ignore the fight to stop a 'No Deal' Brexit and go immediately for Boris's election is partly to do with the simplistic view that the way you do politics is to start from the opposite of your enemy. Blair said it; therefore it must be wrong. In reality, simply putting a cross where your enemy puts a plus is a hopeless way to decide 'what is to be done'. Unfortunately a much deeper, studied analysis, rising to the level of real life, is crucial.

In the case of Labour's potential to form a government, it is essential to expose and break down the Boris/Cummings's fantasy that somehow austerity can be swept away because Brexit is resolved, in the pretence that the EU will disappear after October 31. But breaking down that powerful feeling depends on the concrete failure of Boris's initiative. Argument on the doorsteps will not, itself, be anything like enough. Boris's 'dream' has to be physically broken, before the active political feelings of millions of people currently aroused by the political crisis, simply return to indifference as a consequence of the difficulties of daily life - or worse.

Here we come to the essence of the matter. It is vital that 'No Deal' fails, because 'No Deal' is the new austerity in Britain. And it is important that there is a 'soft' Brexit deal. By itself of course it will do little to damage the role of the EU, its corruption and its institutions, essentially propping up globalisation, even in a Britain which leaves the EU. Trade deals etc will still point in the wrong direction for the new economy that Britain has a chance of building. But most important of all is that Boris must be busted, whatever the Brexit outcome. And that cannot be done unless his core policy is smashed. That is the decisive next step and the Corbyn Labour Party must focus on that issue first and foremost, without restraint.

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