The Boris Brexit is over.

Yes. Because something else is about to start.

UK Prime Minister Boris has turned the final key and truly Trumped himself. He still holds, now at its height, a bloc of 39% of voters that support 'No Deal.' But Boris shares that 39% with Farage's Brexit Party. And the minority 39%, that Boris has been using to lead the whole of society - denouncing the Brexit 'surrender', fuelling active, public anger - is fraying.

A small part of it is the new Supreme Court ruling which stops Boris shutting Parliament. 49% of voters supported the court and 30% did not. The court was determined to keep the 'remain' door open on behalf of the City, the large corporations etc - but for the time being the court cuts down Boris's charge for outright victory.

Second, Boris's next ploy, which was to set up an immediate General Election, is now in the slow lane and in any case cannot happen before the October 31st. The number of voters that wanted an immediate election before October 31 was always well under 50%.

Finally Boris promised to 'die in a ditch 'if he did not get an exit from the EU by 31 October. And that too looks pleasingly possible. It certainly breaks Boris's main promise that he swore to his core support. That 39% core would not go away if there was a failure on the 31st, but they would split to Farage and, most importantly, they would cease to provide the political lead, behind Boris, across society in general.

There will be tricks and slights of hand before October 31 but the problems that have surfaced for Boris means that he is now desperate to get a 'deal'. Boris's secretive pals have always seen the possibility that getting a 'deal' is different to exiting the EU. They have always known that the bargaining with the EU could start after Britain's exit. But now that a quick election is probably delayed until later November - at the earliest. That would mean a lot of rough weather in the economy before the Election. An early 'deal', pre-November, now looks like it could delay the economic mess of a full Brexit and therefore provide a good chance of a Boris victory in the coming election.

Boris's 'deal', 10 pages of waffle if he's lucky, would have to shove the backstop over Northern Ireland and other key problems to 'guaranteed' futures. A great hullabaloo around Boris's plan, carefully keeping trade issues for the future, would try to re-set all those extreme brexiteers back together with the wider population that is completely exhausted with the Brexit argument, bringing them together as a new bloc that could back Boris and his made-up deal. If the economy still hangs on for a few months, a General Election over Xmas might then provide a Tory victory. Boris is out of his ditch and can then set about his version of Trumpington.

Or so he imagines. Times are changing and views are shifting.

Most of Britain's people are certainly exhausted with Brexit and want the whole mess to go away. Recently however, a there is a growing sense that new politics in Britain are desperately needed. Its first reflection is seen in the wide sense of failure of Britain's political class as a whole. Paradoxically, this has been picked up by both the Tory Party and by Labour. For example there is complete denial from Boris and the Tory Party in general that the negotiations with the EU will still be front and centre whatever happens or does not happen on October 31. The Tories are trying to win the race against Labour based on the prominence of their policies on the NHS, policing, and infrastructure. The difference with Labour is that they have begun to put a further proposition to the population on Brexit. The Tories lie and say that Brexit will be over by November 1st. But now Corbyn has yet again won over the Labour Conference, on a different plain. His proposal, besides the social reforms set out in the Labour conference, is a proposed reunification of the working class over Brexit.  

Boris to a large degree, Farage, and now the Lib Dems both in total error, are deeply inclined to continue to ramp up the Brexit hysteria and are thereby beginning to miss a growing mood. The most obvious evidence of this shift is the reaction to the Lib Dems now that they intend to bypass a referendum if they get into government! Their own grandees are faltering. Amongst other things, if the Lib Dem leaders press the Brexit button, and only the Brexit button, then they will need to explain on the doorstep why they are the Party who rejects the 2016 referendum without a vote! A significant point now often accepted by many of those who voted for Remain.

The Brexit pantomime is a wearing distraction.

What is really the main political issue in Britain today? It is surely the question, can a radical socialist party win the government? That is the real next period in British politics and it begins only weeks away. Frankly, the upshot of Brexit, so long as a temporary compromise can be settled, is neither here nor there, in that context. The number one issue is the unification of the working class, centred on the need for a shift in wealth and power in society. The fight with institutions, like the EU, can wait.

To win radical government, real and immediate dangers must be overcome right now. Boris must not become a settled PM. Otherwise a soft Brexit, another vote, deals after Brexit, none of it will count. The softest possible landing with the EU either way, through a friendly deal, a new vote etc, helps most, for the time being. But Boris's 'heroic' platform; 'out by Halloween - at all costs'; has to be stopped with or without his fake deal - not because it will mean lorry jams at Dover but because it will secure a Boris victory. Boris must be broken and his faction in society isolated. To do that Boris must fail and the unification of Brexit built.

Can the Labour Party carry through a radical socialist program? That's another question entirely.

Don't over-estimate Brexit.

There is a growing vision of the deep and hidden manoeuvres swirling around the current British parliamentary struggles over Brexit. The substance of this idea is that Prime Minister Boris Johnson is following the tactics developed by his adviser Cummings. For example Johnson deliberately says 'shit' to Labour leader Corbyn in the House of Commons (shock, horror) when talking about Labour's economic plans.

This idea of who really runs Boris and who, malevolently, will do literally anything to gain Boris's goal of 'No Deal', has some truth. Boris's rudeness, his ruthless dispatch of the creaky old Tory grandees, his tricks pulled out of the hat, do have a 'mess it up; keep it wild' flavour. And that does not come from the words of Boris's headteacher at Eton when he speaks to the young gentlemen being sent off to run Britain. It comes from the studies made by Cummings, a mini version of Steve Bannerman. And so it is that the right-wing kernel of the new Tory shock troops can barely wait for 'No Deal' to get going with the British version of Trump.

But the substance of the crisis of Britain's Parliament does not lie with Parliament.  It is centred among the tens of millions that have suffered most intensely during a decade of austerity. And, at the moment, the removal of the Tory government and the victory of a Corbyn government, is the only serious opening for a root and branch alternative to the British's peoples misery and anger.

For now, this has been entirely tangled up with Brexit. Brexit has become the cover for the deep malaise of the British people. The energy and anger caused by two miserable decades as the rich got spectacularly richer and the poor's lives fell apart, has been swallowed by the fatuous strains of the UK's relationship with the EU.  

An example of the disoriented thinking that this has caused is shown when some argue that the radical Labour leadership should accept Boris's demand for a General Election before the fight for 'No Deal' is over. This is despite the possibility/probability that Boris would win the election hands down. Boris would win because he would say 'I want a final Brexit after three terrible years; Labour is stopping us.' Even if Labour promoted 'a more pro-worker's deal with the EU - but we need more time', type proposal, the sickened population of England, at least, when it comes to Brexit, would almost certainly give the election directly into Boris's hands, assuming that at least one misery would be over.

The idea that Labour should ignore the fight to stop a 'No Deal' Brexit and go immediately for Boris's election is partly to do with the simplistic view that the way you do politics is to start from the opposite of your enemy. Blair said it; therefore it must be wrong. In reality, simply putting a cross where your enemy puts a plus is a hopeless way to decide 'what is to be done'. Unfortunately a much deeper, studied analysis, rising to the level of real life, is crucial.

In the case of Labour's potential to form a government, it is essential to expose and break down the Boris/Cummings's fantasy that somehow austerity can be swept away because Brexit is resolved, in the pretence that the EU will disappear after October 31. But breaking down that powerful feeling depends on the concrete failure of Boris's initiative. Argument on the doorsteps will not, itself, be anything like enough. Boris's 'dream' has to be physically broken, before the active political feelings of millions of people currently aroused by the political crisis, simply return to indifference as a consequence of the difficulties of daily life - or worse.

Here we come to the essence of the matter. It is vital that 'No Deal' fails, because 'No Deal' is the new austerity in Britain. And it is important that there is a 'soft' Brexit deal. By itself of course it will do little to damage the role of the EU, its corruption and its institutions, essentially propping up globalisation, even in a Britain which leaves the EU. Trade deals etc will still point in the wrong direction for the new economy that Britain has a chance of building. But most important of all is that Boris must be busted, whatever the Brexit outcome. And that cannot be done unless his core policy is smashed. That is the decisive next step and the Corbyn Labour Party must focus on that issue first and foremost, without restraint.