Saturday 31 January 2015

A new stage in European politics.

Now that the anti austerity fight across Europe has a government in Greece to lead it, European politics will never be the same. The current leadership of the EU has to either destroy the Greek government or be signally defeated - with deep consequences either way in their own countries. This is not a prediction about time-scale, although the possibility of Podemus taking Spain by the end of 2015 will accelerate the engagement on both sides. However Europe and the EU cannot remain the same as before in either case.

Merkel and her pals and minions are in a difficult position. Their policy has not delivered significant growth for the euro zone in seven years and shows no real prospects of doing so in the future. Meanwhile the euro relentlessly buoys up the returns on German exports across Europe. If, at the end of February when the next payments to Greece are due, they are refused because the Greek government will not follow the prescribed cuts programme of the Troika, then Merkel faces the possibility of the exit of Greece from the EU - and the repudiation of all of their debts by the Greeks. Major concessions would then be necessary in the case of Spain and Italy to prevent others taking the same route with a view to dissolving their own debt mountains. On the other hand, any compromise offered to Syriza (for example, repayment of debt interest only when Greece GDP is restored to its 2008 level and growth is above 3%,) would also be demanded by Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy - at least.

At the same time an anti-austerity government in Greece and the prospects of another in Spain will produce a new wave of anti-austerity action, building across the continent, in reaction to the anger created by years of falling living standards, rising inequality, political corruption and the lack of hope for anything different in the future. The new Greek government has already shocked Europe's rulers. The debate on the margins about 'dropping' austerity in Europe and cancelling some of the never repayable debts, has moved to the centre. (See the latest proposals offered by the Economist.) Syriza has opened a potential split in Merkel's ramparts. A great groundswell of support for Syriza across Europe can open that split into a chasm. However, should there be no European debt conference and no acceptance of Greek sovereignty over their own economy; should the Greek government be defeated by Europe's rulers then the anger of the European people will not go away. Their hope will be replaced by despair for the future and the contempt for current politics and politicians will only ratchet up. And it will be the chauvinists, and the nationalists and the racists and fascists who will politically reap that harvest, right across the continent.                                                                                          

That's why, whatever else happens in the next weeks and months, Merkel and her allies will do their very best to undermine the new anti-austerity movement and its government, at its source, in Greece itself, so that the European rulers' dilemma might be 'solved' by the overthrow of the Greek peoples' democratic wishes, quite possibly with the additional collateral of a bloodbath.

The stakes could not be higher. In the centre of the political triangle that has been created between Syriza, the exciting and short term prospects in Spain for a second anti-austerity government, and Merkel, are the ordinary people of Greece, of Spain, of Europe. Greece is the crucible today of Europe's future tomorrow. But we all have a say in that.


No comments:

Post a Comment