Removing the part of the heading in brackets, this question formed the title page of the British magazine 'New Statesman' (29 January - 4 February 2016.) A series of Labour Party politicians and various journalists linked to Labour, plus Dr Owen, from the 1980s Social Democratic Party split from Labour and Carolyn Lucas, the only Green MP, commented on the prospects of a schism in Labour.
With one exception, nothing very novel or imaginative emerged. Old arguments were rehearsed. The SDP split and now the Parliamentary failure of UKIP showed that without a fair voting system a new mass party could not be launched - at least a party that focused on Westminster. Therefore both the left, represented by Diane Abbot and the right, represented by most of the other contributors, regarded a split as unlikely. Only one journalist suggested that a split might be in order if Corbyn could not be removed in two years because the electorate were far less congealed by the traditional political parties as had been the case in the 1980s and a new party with the bulk of Labour MPs would start from a far stronger position than the old SLP or indeed UKIP today.
A couple of Labour's erstwhile officials argued that Labour MPs, who had an electorate of 9 million voters in 2015, never mind Corbyn's internal Labour Party membership mandate, should separate themselves from Labour in the country and instead elect their own leader in Parliament. This 'dual power' arrangement would turn the traditional Labour Party into another pressure group and Corbyn into an 'outsider.' Most however focused coming on electoral results. The London Mayoral vote, the Council votes and the Scottish Parliamentary vote in May would begin the determination of Corbyn's leadership.
Carolyn Lucas MP (all too briefly) offered a very different perspective. She argued that a great opportunity had opened up the British politics with Corbyn's election as Labour leader. For her the point was not whether there should be a split in Labour. It was rather what should Britain's new and radical left do with the leading role that they had now won. Lucas sketched in the lines of a new left coalition that was now posed across Britain. From her comments it is possible to imagine an alliance inside Parliament but with its roots among those who build the movements in the country to end Trident, to end Austerity, to make anti-austerity words in Scottish politics into a set of broad principles on agreed and progressive priorities of taxation and public expenditure by reaching out to the SNP's radical wing. It would stand for fair votes to get the new and unrepresented into Parliament and it would call for an end, now, to the current dismal Tory mess. This and more would create the foundations for a new political movement, spearheaded by Labour's new leadership, going towards the 2020 General Election.
What is blindingly obvious is the the 'old' Labour Party cannot be resurrected. Any notion that it will be possible simply to chop off its current head and then return to Blairism mark 2 and 'good old days' when the working classes knew their political places and gave the correct and inevitable Pavlovian response to the whistle, is the equivalent to refusing to open your eyes. A new working class movement has to be built, of which Corbyn's election is a positive sign. But this alone is nothing like enough. Vital trade unions need to be fought for (again) and the mass movement against Trident and austerity doubled, trebled, quadrupled. A new left inside and outside the SNP and the Scottish LP needs to be initiated and the utterly undemocratic Parliament needs to be torn down and rebuilt with fair votes. Lucas is right. A great new political alliance needs to be built across the country. Speculation about Labour spits (and any hesitation or retrenchment out of fear of such threats) will add to their weight and begin to mesmerise those who need to see the future clearly. Enough. There is work to do!
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