The most important event in the UK this summer is the April 16 Peoples' Assembly demonstration. It will give a key indication of the breadth, morale and militancy of the leading edge of Britain's anti-austerity - anti-war movement. Britain's in/out referendum on EU membership on the 23 June is also significant, but not because it will decide anything about austerity or war, or for that matter Britain's fundamental relations with the EU, but because it will give a picture of the social base of Britain's new right wing.
The April 16 demonstration brings together the active leaders and supporters of the growing challenge to austerity - for jobs, over Education and Housing, and most importantly in terms of the Junior Doctors' strikes, in Health. As Prime Minister Cameron's grip on Britain's right wing, both inside and outside Parliament falters, through his reluctant exposure of his own greed, the Chancellor's failed budget and the emergence of the leadership contest to come, Cameron himself will feel the first impact of any regroupment of Britain's right wing. Now is exactly the time for the anti-austerity movement to take the initiative and show this failed leader to the exit. April 16 will also raise that call across society.
Meanwhile the 'official' EU debate gets underway.
It was well understood that 'Team Cameron' went for the referendum to hold back a Tory split before the last 2015 election. His achieved 'reforms' from the EU since the 2015 election are frankly laughable. No senior commentators or political leaders in any major country (except Britain) regards them as anything other than a fig leaf for those who want to remain officially inside the EU. (See for example FT Comment , 9/10 April, Andrew Moravcsik, Politics Professor, Princeton U.) Equally, and not surprisingly, the ridiculously dubbed 'big beasts' arguing for exit are now led by the main alternative leader of the Tory Party to the Cameron clique. Note; Boris Johnston placed himself as the darling of the Tory Party members over his EU opposition in the first instance by saying Britain could always have another referendum when we had shown the EU how serious the UK really was about its sovereignty. He has not the slightest idea of what a real non EU Britain would be.
Despite being ridiculed in mainstream political life the 'double referendum' ploy is not as stupid as it sounds. Both Ireland and Denmark have called a second referendum to make sure of their EU allegiance in the past. More to the point it shows where 'big beasts' like Boris and ex leader Michael Howard who first talked about a second referendum, really are on Europe. None of these people have the slightest intention of unravelling Britain's links to the EU. They believe, (as does David Cameron) that in the event of a 'no' vote Britain would immediately have to remake exactly the same arrangements for access to the EU free market as it has now - whatever concessions were required.
What all of these ex public school 'beasts' want is not a rupture with the EU, it is domestic political power. That is why the significance of the EU referendum is very little to do with what will happen to European capitalism, including the UK, and instead a great deal to do with regrouping a potential racist, anti-union, anti-welfare and pro nuclear right, first inside the Tory Party if possible and then as the leadership of society in the UK as a whole. Johnston and his pals are quite ready to have a prolonged (and entirely spurious) argument over terms with the EU to get the real prize, their 'sovereignty' over the UK.
Massive trade blocs form the key structures of modern, late capitalism. From a democratic socialist perspective none of these blocs, or their institutions, or their leaderships are reformable. The latest example of the political collapse of the Greek Syriza leadership is yet another proof that a reform programme in the EU is far too weak to make any sizable inroads. Yet to the degree that trade blocs respond to modern global life, a radical perspective needs to encompass the prospect of united states and federations of nations on a voluntary and democratic basis. That choice is not of course an option in the coming UK referendum, which is primarily and predominantly a domestic contest.
This means therefore that both the (very weak) left campaigns in the UK; to counterpose an abstract 'Peoples Europe' to the EU as a platform for a 'no' vote, or to counterpose an abstract 'Peoples Europe' made of possible alliances with anti-austerity forces across the EU - this time as a platform for a 'yes' vote, are equally detached from any 'concrete analysis of the concrete situation.'
The only class interest evoked by the UK's EU referendum is to try to deny any triumph for the racists and the new right by voting 'yes' - to prevent a new political recomposition consolidating (with its 4 million UKIP votes at the last General Election) in British politics.
And the other referendum?
If the right do win Britain's EU referendum and UKIP supporters are regrouped inside the Tory Party or elsewhere; solidified as a real base for populist reaction, then there will be another referendum - in Scotland. And while the next Scottish referendum would nominally be based on EU membership, the real content of such a referendum would actually be formed by the question: Do the Scottish people wish to be led in their politics, economics and at the level of their society, by England's new right wing?
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