Brexicated

There is a temptation to shout 'hurrah' when the establishment take an insurgent blow as brutal as the June 23 British vote for Brexit. Major corporations, huge banks and finance houses, a whole European and British political class, are stunned at the insouciant temerity of millions of poor people pissing on their lawn.

But history has used insurgency in many times and forms. London's Gordon Riots of 1780 were an early sign, but with a reactionary face, of what was to become a great radical, progressive and revolutionary wave, led in action by the 'sans culottes', across France in the 1780s and 90s. In 1966 Chairman Mao used millions of revolutionary minded youth, mobilized as a result of a faction struggle in the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party, as he sought popular (and murderous) defenses against his critics. Alas mass commitment, even with an apparently democratic twist, does not in itself signify that the interests of working class people have been served, despite any emotional fall out gained from 'dissing' the fat cats. (And arguments from the left that rely on such notions are worthless.)

Nevertheless it is worth an initial look at the social voting patterns for Brexit across the UK to begin to root any political analysis of meaning of the vote in healthy ground.

First, the argument that a great northern and working class rebellion in England 'won' Brexit does not stand up. Sheffield (518k population) narrowly voted to leave the EU. But Manchester, Liverpool, Leeds, Newcastle etc., (1.75 million) voted to remain. The section of traditional Labour Party voters in the North of England who voted for Brexit, came mainly from smaller towns and were concentrated particularly strongly in the Northeast (but not Newcastle.)  58% of voters in the Northeast voted Brexit compared with the UK average of 52%. The working class vote in the North of England as a whole on EU membership was divided - and this is not news. UKIP scored high votes in a number of traditionally Labour constituencies in the Northeast in the 2015 election - particularly in the smaller towns. And it was the Northeast of England, along with the Welsh Valleys, that had their economic and social structure most destroyed, without any reconstruction by any government, as a result of the defeat of the Miners in the 1980s and 90s.

In other parts of the UK working class reaction to Brexit was also divided, but with majorities for staying in the EU. This was apparent from the vote in the poorer boroughs of London, Cardiff, Bristol, etc. In Scotland the 'remain' vote was victorious in every part of the country. And a (still) profoundly working class city and its environs, Glasgow, voted 2 to 1 to remain in the EU.

Significantly young people who voted were 72% more likely to vote to stay in the EU and those from 25 to 49 years voted in their majority for 'remain'. (UGov poll 23 June.) It is difficult to believe that these millions of younger voters are any sort of a part of the establishment!

To draw out some provisional conclusions from this initial survey; the result of the EU referendum is not fundamentally a class uprising against the status quo. We are not seeing the alienated poor intent on damaging the economic and political system of Britain and of the EU. In some of the most shattered and shredded regions of England and Wales, poisoned by Thatcher and then hung out to dry by the UK rulers' universal embrace of globalisation, we see a negative, often an anti-immigrant and racist reaction to any opportunity afforded to make a mark on the history of the country. But in areas with similar social and economic conditions, where working class people, abandoned by Labour's Blairism and then austerity, built new leaderships and new perspectives that offered a different route forward, the vote was to 'remain'.

Scotland's working class grasped new perspectives, the prospect of creating a new country, as the traditional Labour Party abandoned them. No such possibility applied in the Northeast or the Midlands and it is the relentless, one sided loyalty to Welsh Labour that has turned the Welsh Valleys into the opposite of their progressive past as Plaid Cymru was unable to break even that tenuous link. In Northern Ireland, Sinn Fein assured a majority for staying in the EU.

Elsewhere, traditional 'middle England' played its normal arcane role, totting up its hurts since the end of Empire, and spitting them back at the Tory party leaders that had become too metropolitan.

Undoubtedly the EU troubles and the ongoing British political crisis (see many previous blogs) will both heighten as a result of Britain's unexpected turn from orthodoxy. But it must be remembered that the referendum was never about who should hold power or wealth either internationally or in Britain. Both 'sides' argued for deepening globalisation. Indeed, the exiteers were most vociferous in their desire to roll back all the European 'restraints' on employers. In that they have begun to construct the British version of Hungary and Poland's new right wing regimes and are a UK echo of Trump's fight for power in the US. All these new leaderships (plus the Austrian and the French and Dutch far right) use opposition to the EU as a fig leaf for their deep commitment to the destruction of labour and of immigrant rights; two of the major social forces, along with youth, that can challenge globalisation from a non-nationalist standpoint.

Before the Brexit result, the opening out of the crisis of the Tory Party was the main consequence of the EU debate in Britain. Today, 24 April, the main aspect of the British political crisis is with the Labour Party, more precisely with Corbyn's leadership of it. Besides the loss of 25 Scottish MPs and the renewal of the prospects of another Scottish referendum, Corbyn has now inherited the further consolidation of a right wing oriented social base in a large section of what were traditional Labour voters. It is of course absurd to blame Corbyn for these developments, for not campaigning hard enough for the wretched EU. The break up of Labour's base starts even earlier than Blair. And defending the EU 'remain' vote as anything other than a means of stopping yet another Bullendon Boy from grabbing the leadership of the Tories under a new and more right wing banner, was never going to raise much enthusiasm. In other words, the referendum had to be used by Corbyn and Labour for something else.

Now Corbyn faces an early execution; another signal that the course of events in the UK, mirroring as they do the political developments in the rest of the West, is now flowing away from the promise and initiative of the left in the UK that flourished from 2012 to 2015. In reality the Corbyn leadership was never going to be able to 'win over' the bulk of the parliamentary Labour Party. He stood and stands for the working class interest above all and they do not. A schism was and remains inevitable in the old Labour Party although tactical astuteness is a critical factor in its emergence and conclusion. Corbyn was always fighting to lead Labour and to lead Labour into a general election. That continues to be the best context in which to marginalise the sections of Labour that will break from Corbyn's management. The direct and unambiguous call for an early general election by the Labour leadership is now indispensable. This will drive the mainstream political momentum back to the left taking the initiative from the right. A new (rightist) Tory PM has no mandate. A new economic world has to be built in Britain as the City of London prepares to set sail for pastures new (in Frankfurt or Paris unless Boris agrees that the City can be a tax free haven like Hong Kong or Singapore.) Scotland will have another referendum. All this requires an election asap and dramatic new politics and policies to bridge the gap between rich and poor and build a new society.

Out of that (and only out of that) will emerge the prospects of a new Labour Party with a significant number of MPs, that can lead the battle with the Tories and begin to make the alliances needed to build a genuine left in Britain

Next: Prospects for EU.