The British Labour Party has been tortured by the results of bi-elections (23 February) in the Copeland constituency in England's North West and in Stoke, a city in the north of the English Midlands. The British media has been spinning analyses over these two elections, all of which lead to the result that the Labour Party is experiencing 'meltdown' mainly, it would seem, as a result of its current far left leader Corbyn.
UKIP's leader, Nuttall also failed personally in Stoke and his party generally failed across both bi-elections in its explicit aim to replace Labour in both constituencies. In fact the newspapers and TV and Radio commentariat, albeit hesitantly although in some cases trembling with excitement, are suggesting that it is May's Tory party, now in government, that has persuaded many traditional working class voters that it is they who now best represent the interests of Britain's working class!
It is certainly true that in the Copeland constituency the Tory Party absorbed UKIP's vote. And although Stoke was 'held' by Labour, the most pro-Brexit constituency in Britain, the Tories came close to beating UKIP into second place. But this does not tell us that Prime Minster May's Tories are now winning the working class. UKIP wanted to win Labour, working class seats in the North of England using the racist card - but it never did. It is important not to confuse an aim with a reality. What the Tories have done is to 'win', partly in Stoke and in a major way in Copeland, what was, potentially, the UKIP vote. Some commentators revelled in May's brilliant tactics. Others said that UKIP have no longer got their main reason to exist anymore as Britain is now on its way out of the EU. But May's 'brilliant' tactics amount to adopting the main policies that UKIP stood on. The Tories have not begun to win the working class interest. They have adopted UKIP's racism and won a large part of their vote.
Despite claims to have workers on company boards and to look out for those only just getting by, May's Tories have cut welfare (again), are reducing living standards (again) and ruining the NHS and public services in general. They are increasing anti-union laws way above Thatcher's limits. And now they demand that Britain should celebrate Trump. They are, in practise, the most right wing government seen in Britain since WW2. Worse than Thatcher.
Traditionally voting in bi-elections is less than in general elections. Voting for a single MP is not as significant as voting for a government. In Copeland 51% of potential voters voted. In Stoke it was 37%. These are significantly low voting totals, low even for bi-elections. Which raises the first fundamental point about the real meaning of the Copeland and Stokes' elections.
Who are the half of Copeland's voters and the 63% of Stokes' voters who did not vote? Overwhelmingly, they are working class voters. The main thing that the working class of Copeland and of Stoke did is abstain or, in a minority of cases, vote Labour. (Copeland had become far more marginal between Labour and the Tories than most British media admitted.) The meaning of that, which will be of interest to the pundits and commentators but which is a life and death question for the Labour Party, is that a large part of the working class of Britain has disconnected from the traditional political routine, via the continued failure of the Labour Party, over decades, to do anything different.
But this is not just about the Labour Party. In reality millions in Britain find it hard to see any connection between their lives and Parliament - or any of the other melange of institutions by which, apparently, they are ruled. So it is not enough for John McDonnel (Labour's shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer) to say on the BBC's Today program (24 February) that Labour's reputation is still being spoilt by ex - Labour PM Blair and Mandelsons's speeches a few days before voting. He is right, but not really right enough. The main political institutions of the country, including the modern history of the Labour Party, are all soiled goods. Corbyn promises a new politics, but that must mean a new Parliament; fair votes; control over all the real controllers - in the City - in the major corporations. It must mean the guarantee that each new generation will have a better life than its predecessors.
From which emerges the second substantial reality of Copeland and Stoke. The current Labour Party, without any realistic chance of winning a General Election, because of Scotland, because of abstention in England and Wales, because the remains of the Parliamentary Party will sabotage their own leadership, can never present itself as the insurgent, new, rebellious, future oriented force, that would be able to speak directly to and work directly with the people. What is more, already millions realise it. The continued insistence that traditional Labour Party unity can be won, that Humpty Dumpty can be put back together again, that working class people across Britain can return, once again, to the way things used to be, is the real, hopeless and utopian fantasy in British politics today.
As the right becomes more confident across the West, and as the resistance to the next wave of austerity and racism rises up while reaction tries to roll over society, the left wing leadership of the British Labour Party must imagine, build and project much more to people in Stoke, Copeland and the rest of Britain - than their sorrow for unavailable unity with the bulk of Labour MPs.!
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