France in political crisis

Macron is the EU leadership's favourite for the French Presidency. His non-Party, En Marche! (so reminiscent of Berlusconi's slogan, 'Forza Italia!') has the vacuous quality of standing neither to the left or right, promoting Europe's big corporations while 'defending' France's welfare safety net. Something for everyone. Nothing for anyone. His new party is as empty as his programme. It exists to shout 'hurrah' for the new President. Once again History conjures up a spirit from the mists, providing first this shape and then its opposite, like a Wizard of Oz, behind which big capital can continue to grind out its profits, hoping, against hope; against the trend of the times, and against any economic literacy; to arrive at a more socially pliant time to come.

But this plan is faltering. It was supposed to answer what the French media call the 'decomposition of the left', by which they meant the collapse of Francoise Hollande's Social Democratic Party, and turn traditional socialist voters towards the Macron miracle. At the same time Macron's multi-faceted politics would suck up enough of France's traditional right to fight off Le Pen (who remains the main issue in French politics today.) What is happening since the two Presidential TV debates is a political recomposition that no media pundits predicted. Mélenchon is rising in the polls. He has reached 20% on average - just 6 points below Macron and ahead of a failing Fillon, the candidate from France's traditional right.

Mélenchon too has formed his own movement, 'France does not submit!' But unlike Macron, Mélenchon' clearly states he is not against parties as he is in one himself. He is a member of the 'Left Party, a split from the Social Democrats, and his political program is clear to all French voters and the wider world. The French Communist Party (most often mentioned in the international media alongside 'France does not submit!'), does provide some of its organisational strength but as part of a much wider left umbrella. And it is a French CP now shorn of its historic strategy which was to unite in a common front with France's Socialist Party. Mélenchon presents his candidacy as completely distinct from the Socialist Party. His program (and his increasing support in the polls) reaffirms this approach. (See Program.)

Meanwhile France's Social Democratic Candidate Benoît Hamon, despite his break from Hollande and his leftist approach, has an average of 11% in the polls and is declining. Popular understanding of this state of affairs across the left and the right in France is that Hamon's popularity is waining because he is the SP candidate.

The first stage of the struggle for France (and for the political future of Europe including Britain) is becoming clearer. Unlike Macron, who is without any social base, with no substantial resources in either ideas or social support to hold out for any substantial time against the extreme right's political momentum, Mélenchon on the other hand would be force that could resist and repel Le Pen - especially among the youth. Both of France's traditional mass parties are unable to play any such role and the danger is growing.

Next; Corbyn's fate