The polling in UK's coming General Election (8 June) is a mixed bag. Whereas previous UK elections saw opinion polls grouping behind a single message, this election has spread them out. For example on May 31 some polls kept (UK Prime Minister) Teresa May ahead of Labour's Jeremy Corbyn by 10 points, others narrowed the gap to 3 points. Outside observers suggest the pollsters are running shy of previous errors. But whatever the scale of differences between the polls, the trend of increased support for Labour and a small decline in support for the Tories is common to all of them.
This should not have happened. It was not in the mainstream media's script. There was to be a snap election that provided a Tory 'landslide.'
After all Corbyn has been an insignificant, rabid socialist all his life! Most Labour MPs supported a vote of no confidence in him! On the other hand, May had united her Tory Party after the Cameron, Brexit catastrophe; swallowed UKIP's 3.9 million 2015 votes whole, and become both 'strong and stable' as she savagely attacked the EU membership that she had voted for last year.
The shift in the polls between Labour and the Tories has come about, not so much because May has revealed herself to be weak under pressure from her own party and her party's voter base (although her self-styled 'strong and stable' mantra has all-but disappeared). The Tory decline seems to amount to about to a couple of nervous polling points against her. The significant shift in all the polling has been the rise of potential votes for Labour. Why? Most people's best guess is that Labour's increasing support is a result of the Corbyn team's manifesto - although the pro Labour shift started earlier and many commentators believe Corbyn gets more popular when he, rather than the caricature, is seen. Corbyn's Labour manifesto is a dramatic assault on austerity, both in relation to social services and the NHS, and in relation to the decline in wages and the continued rise in the wealth of the top 5%.
Several polls now put Labour's support higher than ex Labour leader, Ed Miliband's vote in the 2015 election. One poll put's Labour's vote as higher, by nearly 4%, than Labour's last General Election Victory under Blair in 2005.
There are two other types of polls which are telling a new story about Corbyn's Labour. The first nationally published polls have started to appear on the likely distribution of seats in Parliament. Sinister figures like Lord Ashcroft used to cook up these sorts of polls in the past for Tory party purposes - but his methods were unclear and information was scanty. YouGov have produced a poll, based on the average of all polls to date, and linked to other elements of analysis, involving 50k potential voters, which shows that May will be 16 MPs short of an overall majority in Parliament, despite winning many more seats than Labour. May's 'strong and stable' snap election and Tory landslide is potentially collapsing over her head.
A London newspaper, the Metro, published a YouGov poll on the 26 April which showed that the 18 - 24 age group were 19% more in favour of Corbyn than May (when Labour were supposedly 40 points behind the Tories.) 18 - 40 year old women backed Corbyn 42% to May's 27%. Men in the same bracket favoured Corbyn over May by 32 - 31%. It is worth noting that Thatcher was supported by 42% of 18 - 24 year olds in 1979.
The British polls and polling are a fragile thing, although the trend in growing support for the Labour Party and the reaction of younger voters is a stable feature of longer term assessments. However it is still useful to draw out some larger implications of the provisional figures that have emerged.
First, the Blairite and right wing Labour insistence that only a liberal, globalist approach could establish a solid base for the modern Labour Party is in splinters. Which is not to say that this central set of beliefs and political orientation is dead in the future of British politics. What it does mean is that it will be much harder, after the support that Corbyn has won for the Labour Party, to simply revert Labour back to its Blairite history. On the contrary, it is even clear in the few politician's debates that have been publicised on TV that there is a roaring anger against austerity and its effects on the NHS etc., that are not about to go away whether May wins handsomely or not.
Second, Le Pen's 34% of the French voters in the final round of the French Presidential election contained a big majority of younger voters, especially beyond France's larger cities. If (when) Macron fails, it will be the French youth that will be seen and heard first. In Britain, it is of tremendous significance that in the battles to come, the youth are overwhelmingly identified with the Corbyn left, where they have begun to embrace politics. The tremendous efforts of the Peoples Assembly and other anti austerity, anti-War and Racism movements have been and continue to be decisive in this utterly critical issue. Consider if UKIP or the English Defence League had built a sizeable youth movement under the racist pressures extolled by May, UKIP and their versions of Brexit.
Third and finally Britain's political crisis is shifting again and shaping new developments - following the election.
If there is any reality to the YouGov polling on the distribution of Parliamentary seats following the June 8 Election, then the coalition of right wing Tory May and UKIP (absence made of any UKIP MP) will have to face an anti-austerity coalition in order to be defeated. This anti-austerity coalition would be the new premise for the Labour Party. Together with the SNP's projected 50 seats, Plaid Cymru's 3 and the Greens 1, Labour would hold the majority over the Tories. How could it not take such a step in the name of the British people against a grotesque, anti-working class government? The next steps in British politics will be need to big ones.
Equally Britain's traditional ruling class is also preparing. According to the Economist, see We don't like this Election! the stage is set for a Macron type move, to rebuild a new Blair/Cameron political 'force' in Parliament, following May's coming disasters and Corbyn's 'red menace.' Welcome to a role for the Liberal Democrats - once more! They are to be the magnet for disaffected Tories and rebellious Labourites in Parliament - dressed up as the new politics and given the Macron shine! (And an epic wedge of loot.) The next stage of Britain's political crisis is being set.
No comments:
Post a Comment