There is a discussion in Scotland about setting up a new party. It is barely months away from the next Scottish General Election. Despite coronavirus continuing to dominate the agenda, more and more, party politics is coming out of lockdown. The idea of the new Party is that it would be organised so that the SNP (and their coalition Greens) could win all of their constituency votes, but the new party, coming from outside the constituencies and represented the list votes only, would be able to bring the single independence issue to a bigger, combined majority vote in the Holyrood Parliament. With its increased pressure (both on the SNP and Boris's Westminster government) the new party and the SNP vote would more likely force the second referendum for Scottish independence. This argument is the backdrop to the increasing hints and implications regularly surfacing against the SNP leadership and Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland's first minister.
1. For some months now the polls in Scotland have supported Scottish independence. The figures roughly show the same numbers delivered by the referendum in 2014 - except it is now in reverse! The figures give a growing majority for independence. It is becoming Scottish society's new norm.
Since 2007 the Scottish Nationalist Party has been, and remains, the largest party in Scotland. The SNP is overwhelmingly dominant in Scottish government elections - despite the failed 2014 referendum result.
More dramatically, the SNP leadership are now, overwhelmingly, the most serious challenge to the UK's government. Not only has the SNP leadership out-managed and out-delivered the responses to Covid-19, it has also restored the issue of Scottish independence - front and centre - in the UK, despite PM Boris Johnson's denial of any new independence referendum.
The problem facing the SNP - and all who now support a new referendum for Scottish independence - is that Boris Johnson is the leader of a large majority of MPs in Westminster and he and they all oppose any new referendum in Scotland. The British Parliament and its government has a legal right to control Scotland's ultimate destiny.
2. Recently in Spain, the Catalonia province and its elected Catalonian leaders, decided to hold their own referendum for independence against Spanish rule. The referendum was not accepted by the Spanish government. It was declared unconstitutional on 7 September 2017 and the referendum was suspended by the Constitutional Court of Spain after the request from the Spanish government, who then declared it a breach of the Spanish Constitution. The Catalonian referendum was denied and its leadership crushed.
3. This is the crisis of the next referendum for Scottish independence. And this is what the SNP leadership said about a new referendum in September 2020.
'That’s why we’re moving forward with giving Scotland the choice over our future – and before the end of this Parliament, we will publish a draft Bill setting out the proposed terms and timing of an independence referendum, as well as the proposed question that people will be asked in that referendum.'
'The 2021 Holyrood election will then be crucial – we will make the case for Scotland to become an independent country, and seek a clear endorsement of Scotland’s right to choose our own future.'
But nothing is published by the SNP that offers a way through the Westminster government's dominant majority legal-lock.
4. Virtually all of the radical left in Scotland also demand a new referendum. At the moment the left (which does not include the decaying and dying remnants of Scottish Labour) is driving in two directions.
First is the AUOB (All Under One Banner) marches across Scotland in 2019. On 07/10/2019, the Edinburgh march - in the rain - attracted over 200,000 people - the largest demonstration in Scotland ever. The SNP leadership were effectively forced onto the platform - and their constitutional nervousness was noted. Today this unresolved question remains open under the general significance of the Corona-virus, but the SNP September 2020 statement is still moot in respect of the inevitable challenge with Westminster. The desire of the left (and some of the SNP deep-nationalists) to make independence the main, defining issue in the coming election in 2022, stems from the power of the AUOB movement.
Second, a smaller left group in Scotland insists that the referendum has to be effected only on socialist terms. The SNP and its leadership are defined as Scotland's Tories and building a socialist leadership of the referendum is the keystone to (and the only way) that Scottish independence can be won.
While the abstract and sectarian perspective of this second approach speaks loudly for itself, nevertheless the broad, mass-movement, now in suspension, cannot project Scotland's marches and its polls for a referendum as the answer to overcoming the UK government. Additionally, the problem that would ensue is that such a Scottish referendum, repudiated by the UK government, would become a different issue again across all British politics. The British state would define the left's Scottish referendum as an illegal initiative, and that would be seen as an attack on the democracy of the UK as a whole.
5. Here is an answer that opens the politics beyond Scottish 'political parties coming out of lockdown' and the dubious weight of Scottish marches and opinion polls across the UK, albeit their value in Scotland. The approach derives from the understanding that Scotland's 'right' for independence is its constant and unacceptable restraint created by the English based Parliament and governments. Scotland's Westminster laws and governments simply do not represent the laws and governments that the majority of Scot's agree with. That has been the case since the 1970s. For 50 years Scotland has not been able to implement the full requirements of its own society. This, fundamental fact, means that Scotland cannot implement its own democracy.
These are examples of what a lack of democracy means and what should happen about it - as soon as possible - to begin the fight for democracy in Scotland. First, the SNP and the majority of Scots think that Britain's Trident nuclear submarines are unacceptable. Trident is a British policy to 'defend' a nation that feels the need to prepare for devastating war across the world. Most Scots however want to be a small nation who look after their own people. This is what should happen. The SNP should remove Trident, close it down. Let Westminster move it to a nation that supports it. Mass action will certainly be needed to stop nuclear Scotland. If the SNP do not fight this issue, actively, in a mass movement, then they do not fight for Scottish democracy.
The implementation of a humane immigration policy, immediate alliances with surrounding nations, major conferences nationally and internationally to re-model the new democracy, including with other ex-UK citizens that are supportive. These are vital measures now to prove a new, progressive nation is being born. And they can be started in the face of Westminster's failing democracy - as an alternative society.
From practical steps like these (changing Westminster taxes, re-organising a new Bank of Scotland and the building of a sovereign wealth fund, etc) the argument about Westminster's rights in Scotland will become immediately defensive and then apply for a new treaty and the battle for independence has truly begun. It is the alternative to endless court battles and declining marches.
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