Afghanistan and the West

Trump floated 'a deal' with the Taliban, over the heads of his US installed government, to agree that there would be no more attacks on the West and then the Taliban would be able to share the government. Biden did not believe in the Taliban's offers (despite, for example, that they have said on the 10th of August that the West would not become a base for terrorists) but Biden did believe that the US trained Afghan army would hold the line against the Taliban - which would be enough to keep the West safe, (despite a likely endless fight in Afghanistan itself.)

These two military talents are only topped in history by the Brits, who lost three wars in Afghanistan, the latter providing a day of celebration in Afghanistan on the 19th of August. Any guesses about the date of the 'fall' of Kabul?

Afghanistan's current government is finished. But serious results will erupt as the factional lines, in and around the Taliban, break out across the country. One major probability is the renovation of al-Qaeda across the Pakistani/Afghanistan border, coupled with the prevailing pressure by China on both parts and on the Pakistan military. 

The result of the US forces' retreat (coupled by the exit of the mini UK) and the apparent 'success' of the Taliban, is a disaster for the Afghanistan people, particularly for women and children. This is a barbarism as awful as described by Rosa Luxemburg in WW1 and her judgement of the counter revolution arising in Germany. 'Socialism or barbarism' was her perception. 

Many in the US couple this moment with the 'terrible failure' of the exit of US forces out of Vietnam. But they reversed their judgement then and now. Vietnam was an historic success in South East Asia - and fired the optimism of millions across the world for a different life. Afghanistan today is the opposite. The turn to the dark-ages is certainly a modern aspect of a spreading shaky international capitalist system and an increasing decline of the Western imperialist adventures, but it is a turn to barbarism. The US (and the UK) as a result of their own weaknesses, have just turned forty million into a deeper hell. 

Does that mean that the West's invasion, (following the USA build up of the Taliban, organised and funded to defeat the Soviet Union's invasion) was, or is, right? Of course not. But it would be absurd to follow a 'what's if' trail to simply apply Afghanistan independence. That would need to be going back at least to the Victorian 'heroes' and their gatling guns. 

It has to start with an Afghanistan (nominally created as a nation by the UK) that was and remains an area of enormous value and importance. As China has advanced, so Afghanistan even now demonstrates its centrality in the movements between East and West that constantly created huge distributions between the rising settlements and populations, from the Mediterranean to the China seas. Imperialism; the British imperialists, blocked that flow in the 19th century. They wanted a frozen India/Pakistan and the isolation of Russia and China. A blocked Asia laid out north and south and run by London. So, history does turn, but only starting in the present.

What, as somebody once said, should be done? 

There is more than a core of Afghan people that will not give away their expectations into the violent hands of the dark ages. The imperialists have failed them. But there are others that are now able to at least support a new battle for a proper, independent life. China, because it has to function on globalisation and it  is scared of religious cults, will tentatively and at some distance support (but not imperialise) a serious movement, starting with Kabul (alien to the Taliban and entirely based on force) which can build an organisation that will win back the cities. In due course non-military international brigades can provide aid delivered by Afghanistan people that was so deeply unwilling in the hands of the UK, the USSR and the US. The Taliban undoubtedly lead a significant portion of Afghanistan, but less, much less than 2000. History, even for the Taliban, does not stop.