1. The Tory leadership (and membership) are unable to define the Tory's future. The recent previous idea, where some superman or women, like the historical Thatcher who, it turns out, won a poisonous war, or a 'ripping' public schoolboy like Boris, who was 'levelling up' despite the lack of any money - have already failed.
The Tory MP Steve Baker is the only chance, with his block of super EU-leavers in Parliament who still wants Truss, as part of his new idea. Baker has been studying the 1900s when, among other horrors, there was little or no public health and welfare (unless you were rich). Perhaps surprisingly he does not mention the role of the UK's imperialism at that time, and all the countries that poured in the goods and money into the corporations and the UK's bank during that period. Perhaps Baker believes he can get modern equivalents from Singapore and the rest of the cheap labour nations. Baker is for the 19th century future. He's studying it and sees that there will be no money in 2045 to pay the old and ill. People have got to pay for themselves. The main money from the new tiny State has to be the army needed, we assume, to squash the starving. (Baker also doesn't mention the ecology of 2045.)
2. and 3. The growing futures of both Northern Ireland and Scotland both hang on two major shifts in today's UK's politics. First there are, or will be, imminent numbers of the population of both sectors who are favouring separate countries other than the UK. Second, both have political organisations enabled to organise the shift to change into new potential nations. The weakness in the case of NI would undoubtedly be the minority block of Ulster. That is sharpening for sure but it is also dwindling. The bigger obstacle is more likely to be the resistance of the main Southern Irish parties (again minorities) in the South. But a different future (unlike the UK) is crystal clear and getting stronger in both populations.
In Scotland, because of the long-term and the better organisations in Scotland, and the dismal past and future apparent in the UK, the next two years are likely to finally (if reluctantly) decide Scottish nationhood. The failure of ecological and radical possibilities in Scotland, rather than the UK as a whole, is constantly increasing. The alternative political support in Scotland, against the UK, has become deeper and deeper. Moreover, the SNP party has placed its decision to present its Scottish referendum in the likely fast act of a new UK Election.
4. Labour is very likely to win the next Election. This is as obvious - given the Tories. But that is the point. The Election will happen because of the Tories. The Labour leadership, who are undoubtedly able to pass by the Tories' crash, is, up close, not much different to the ideas, as such, that the majority of the Tory Party offer. Except for their dissolution. The Labour leadership has one, particular critical idea. They are utterly determined not to have anything to do with socialism. The current capitalist crisis, with its different aspects, has created a totally normal, would-be, Tory type answer, if they have not collapsed. No wonder that the main Labour Party Momentum leader, Michael Chessum, is now calling for a new left Party.
Two vital questions about the crisis will blow up, upon the coming Election. Millions of workers are acting to win their wages, in order to keep themselves properly alive. The Labour leaders are hiding what Labour will say just now. In office they will act like the Tories - perhaps without some of the new Tory laws, although the last Labour governments maintained the anti-union laws by Thatcher. Second, the large and well supported public utilities are a straightforward, necessary step against the current capitalist crises. Labour leaders frankly dump that direction.
What is decisive in this particular turn is the understanding that a new period, certainly across the West, has begun. The evolution of capitalism has been more and more slicing through the capacity of social democracy to reconstruct social support as the requirement of privacy and wealth. It is not a matter of different questions. It is a system that is essential and deliberately and partly destructive. Even the state capitalist development of the Chinese nation, which is dominated by bureaucratic social, military state, is now facing a serious reduction of development, where figures of development are not being provided from the current 2022 Communist Conference because of the serious reductions. The politics of the Labour leaders are preparing for the decline of social state support.
5. The new period of history, politics and economics, is already calling its alarms in the European war in Ukraine and the decline of the West. As this is written the next UK Prime Minister has just been dumped. And it is not some personal or even political reason of the constant, catastrophic political failures. It is the fundamental shifts of a new time for capitalism and the different places that it requires; a system that is not working.
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