EU Parliament on attack.

On May 23 Britain and the rest of the EU will vote for members of the European Parliament. Normally the EU parliamentary elections have meant very little to the bulk of the UK electorate. But Brexit now smothers all debate in Britain. New parties have formed, one around leaving the EU and another around remaining in the EU (refusing to join up with the other two 'remainer' parties). The EU parliament vote in Britain is therefore likely to become another surrogate for the Brexit argument. And a larger vote in the EU elections than normal in Britain could easily occur. Up to now most commentators believe that Britain's new 'Brexit Party', led by Nigel Farage, will win a majority of seats (thereby strengthening their demand that the British Parliament accept an immediate exit from the EU.)

So this time the European elections are likely to have a bigger impact on Britain's politics than usual. But half the story of that impact has not yet been told. The insular and chauvinist view that predominates the great majority of Britain's media in relation to the EU means that critical aspects of the coming election have so far been almost entirely missed. (One exception was the British 'Observer' newspaper on May 13, which offered a summary of most of Europe's voting intentions - available from various news sites, like Politico.)

Going through the facts of the EU election it is important to understand that immigration (or the stopping of it) is the main issue for most EU member countries and their voters. Immigration, followed by Terrorism are the two top concerns for EU voters. Also, for the first time in EU elections, all of the polls in EU countries show that the main parties that have led the EU parliament up to now, the European Peoples Parties and the Socialists and Democrats, will lose their historic domination of the EU parliament, to be replaced by the right and extreme-right parties. Polls (Politico's European summary) suggests that the traditional and mainstream parties of Europe will win 44% of the European parliamentary seats out of the 705 available. More concerning for those traditional EU leadership parties, is the fact that they lead in only two of the ten most populous EU countries. It is generally conceded that the right and extreme right will win the EU parliament by about one hundred and twenty seats.

In the polls that examine the view of EU members regarding the quality of their own country's democracy and that of the EU, 44% of French voters are unhappy with their own democracy and 47% are unhappy with that of the EU. (In Germany 26% are unhappy with their own democracy and 41% with that of the EU.) In Spain, Italy, Poland, Hungary, Greece, Bulgaria and six other countries, voters believe the EU democracy is better than that of their own country. This in part accounts for the fact that while right and extreme-right parties are dominating voting expectations this is not the same as in the UK. Britain, or mainly England has the Brexit Party, an extreme-right party, which is totally opposed to the EU. Most right and extreme-right parties in the EU currently support EU membership - and are seeking, in due course, to 'win' the leadership of the EU.

There are exceptions to this trend. More traditional far-right parties, like the previously named National Front, now National Rally, in France, are still flirting with versions of Frexit. But generally rightist parties in the EU seek leadership of the EU rather than its dis-aggregation - for now. Estimates suggest that general pro EU MEPs will number around 448 while MEPs hostile to, or just marginally critical of, the EU, will number only 250 in total. Of course that might shift if the new EU right does not win its goals for immigration, drastic reductions of human rights including labour rights and the dismissal of climate change. (About 82% of EU, 80% German and virtually all Polish coal power plants do not comply with a new EU regulation on industry air pollution emissions standards. The Polish government plans to expand its coal generation at least through to 2050.) But for now, Farage's Brexit Party is in a small minority in Europe's right wing when it comes to european unity.

The consequences of this drastic shift to the right in the EU parliament could be considerable in the UK but will take time to be processed.

The new reality of the EU - with its most directly 'democratic' component locked into a right and extreme right direction - will first change some of the credibility of British 'remainer' parties and movements in respect of their promotion of the EU as 'liberal' with a small 'L'. It turns out that Farage's Brexit party, and his likely success, will be the closest representation of the EU's political direction in Britain except, due to super-chauvinism in their case, it will not be part of it!

In 2016 when the Brexit referendum was held in Britain nearly 4 million had voted for a rancid and racist UKIP in the General Election. It followed that the racist swell in Britain's society had to be countered and those who saw that plague as more critical than whether or not Britain was in the EU as such, called for a vote in favour of the EU to stem the rightist tide; including this blog. Today there is a solid chance of a genuine left government in Britain. Indeed, that single fact has already forced Farage to say that immigration to Britain is no longer the main issue! And, meanwhile, it is the EU that is now about to wave the racist banner, from the EU parliament no less.

All this implies two, critical facts for the left in Britain today (and after May 23.) First, the EU was never anything but a machine designed to defend, at all costs, big capital based in Europe's larger countries. And second, one of its main institutions will shortly be going into battle to massively increase the Continent's racism as its version of a challenge to globalisation. The idea that EU represented any sort of moral, political, economic or social safeguard for European citizens is again to be tested to destruction. (The EU's 'wall' against immigrants from the African and Middle Eastern world, made tougher by the Lisbon Treaty, was already the moral compass provided for Trump's actual wall against Latin America.)

Today, the biggest question in Britain is whether or not a Corbyn-led government is established soon. But yet again it is a phantom question that is used to replace the main issue. For sure it is marginally better if a soft Brexit is agreed to prevent EU rules playing a part in the efforts that big-capital will make to mow down Corbyn's economic reforms. And the latest EU racism can quickly be substituted for the UKIP version if needed by the right in Britain. But frankly, it matters little whether a soft Brexit or remaining in the EU is chosen. For example youth support for Corbyn's Labour might be enhanced by a second vote. The pressing goal now must be to make an end of the Brexit parody altogether, clearing the way for a government that will begin to address the dismal decline for most people in British society.