The EU elections (traditionally a democratic sideline in most of the EU) are now spinning Europe - and the UK. They are already wiping out the decaying Syriza, the self-styled left government in Greece, as it decides it has to go for a suicidal general election. The two major parties that ran the EU Parliament since its origin in 1979 no longer have the majority. Marie (the pen), a proto fascist, beat Macron in France. (This particular 'white knight of the future' has already fallen off his horse in France. Now he's also blown his main international project. And, with Macron on the skids the Blairite hopes for the both the UK and the EU have also faded away.) Italy, France, Poland, Hungary and Britain are now filling the majority of their Euro seats with mini Trumpites. Luckily, the British MEP Trumps are too dumb to realise that they are on the same side as the right and extreme right in the EU parliament. Together, if Farage could remove his jingoistic eye pads from his Brexit eyes, the new right have the numbers to take the leadership of the EU parliament, the only vaguely democratic part of the EU!
It was German voters (and partially the revival of social democracy in Spain and Portugal) that halted the march of the of the hard right in Europe. And it was the German Greens in particular who soaked up the disillusionment created by Merkle's coalition, instead of the expected rise of the Alternative for Germany. Among other things, this was a dramatic shift away from the anti-immigrant upsurge in a key part of the continent. (The UK's Farage echos this when he tells us that his Brexit Party has nothing to do with poisonous immigration - which is now old news. The issue now is democracy!) The German Green's 20% plus, formed a barrier which held back the steady advance of Germany's new fascists to 11% (though the AdF still had more than double the votes of the left party, Die Link.)
Returning to political life in Britain, desperate efforts are being made across the media and among many would-be Labour supporters for the Labour leadership to stop their complex set of balletic steps to Brexit and settle for a new referendum vote. After all, there was a significant majority of 'remainer' support in the British EU vote, despite the Brexit Party's win.
The Tory half-baked government maybe spinning but once again, (see Blog May 24) the confusion in Britain, in the British Parliament and in the Labour Party, is clearing.
The British Tory party is now coalescing around Boris Johnson. First there is an enormous pressure for all Tory MPs to support 'No Deal' if the EU do not make major (post Teresa May) concessions. In fact, 'No Deal' has become the watchword of success in the politics of Brexit. Second, and more important to Britain's elite and many anxious Tory MPs, nobody else from the Tories except Boris has a chance of stopping Corbyn's Labour. (The last 25 polls in Britain on the outcome of a possible general election put Labour in the lead.) One of the 9 (and growing) Tory candidates for Prime Minister, Foreign Secretary Phil Hammond, states categorically that an early general election 'would be a disaster for the Tories.'
All this shows that the political initiative, at least in England, now firmly rests with Corbyn's Labour Party. But things have changed. What should Labour do now?
Over the last two years the Corbyn leadership has insistently argued for a General Election in Britain as the main instrument to resolve the overall direction of the country - part of which would have been involved with, but not become dominated by - Brexit. And, if Labour had been successful, the types of Brexit might have been calmly and fairly resolved in the context of the broad reforms carried out from the party's manifesto. Instead, in those two years, the growing Tory leadership's uncertainty about Brexit, whether it was hard or soft, could there be a deal or no deal - led by a Prime Minister without any strategic grip or base in her party - has ended up creating two new dangerous disasters. First, Brexit itself has become the synonym for all government activity and policy. Never mind the precipitous decline for millions. Second, UKIP's racist party, with its 4 million voters, who had retreated and dissolved its own leadership by 2017, has now been recreated, by the Tory government's shambles, in the form of the Brexit party.
The Tory projection of its own crisis over Europe onto large swathes of the British population will not now simply dissolve in thin air. And neither will the second UKIP. The Corbyn led Labour leadership now need to break the momentum of this originally second rate turmoil and thereby re-instate the priority of the giant reforms desperately needed by the British people who took Labour to the brink of Government in 2017. But how?
By accepting that Brexit can now be a major problem for the British people - should the 'Brexit believers' decide that they can run British capitalism as a tax haven with 'no deal'. Then Labour should say that the Tories have now brought us very close to that very precipice. If Boris (or a mini Boris) is selected by the Tory Party that will mean all forces opposing Boris, the Tories (and the Brexit Party) have to fight together with the Labour Party for another vote. The vote might contain various options including remain in the EU, devise a close partnership with the EU outside its management, remove all links with the EU. If the Tories back Boris and the Brexit Party then the response has to be crystal clear. And this cannot be subordinate to the call for a General Election, but alongside it.
In the end Brexit (outwith its extreme versions) is not decisive for the future of the British people. And that is why making concessions in either a leave or remain direction in principle is less important than Britain's future government and the implementation of its plans. While there are definitely better and worse outcomes and the different options are not neutral regarding membership of the EU, because Brexit is less important it is therefore possible to amend a position for or against. (And it would be, for example, a wholly negative abstraction to use the Tory referendum to pretend that somehow some sort of genuine democracy was at stake here.) Nevertheless, despite these deeper realities, extreme Brexit is now immediate and Brexit in general has undoubtedly conquered the concerns and understanding of political choices in the population at large - as the Tory Party floods its European contradictions across the land they have fed the soil. This has to be faced now in order to move beyond it.
And the German Greens? If Labour now needs to punch through the Brexit wall it will then need to rally the forces that started to build around the 2017 General Election. The big majority of youth were the bedrock for Corbyn's Labour - and remain so according to social polls. But, the youth were also largely 'remainers.' And it has taken a long time for Labour to recognise their views on Brexit. There is little danger that the LibDems have purchase with Labour's young base. But the new strengths of the Greens, created by the big movements of youth to defend the planet ... that is a much larger question. Whether Europe's official Green Parties are at the centre of, or even really connected to the new climate movement's anti-system thinking is another question, and will be looked at in the next Blog.
The British Tory party is now coalescing around Boris Johnson. First there is an enormous pressure for all Tory MPs to support 'No Deal' if the EU do not make major (post Teresa May) concessions. In fact, 'No Deal' has become the watchword of success in the politics of Brexit. Second, and more important to Britain's elite and many anxious Tory MPs, nobody else from the Tories except Boris has a chance of stopping Corbyn's Labour. (The last 25 polls in Britain on the outcome of a possible general election put Labour in the lead.) One of the 9 (and growing) Tory candidates for Prime Minister, Foreign Secretary Phil Hammond, states categorically that an early general election 'would be a disaster for the Tories.'
All this shows that the political initiative, at least in England, now firmly rests with Corbyn's Labour Party. But things have changed. What should Labour do now?
Over the last two years the Corbyn leadership has insistently argued for a General Election in Britain as the main instrument to resolve the overall direction of the country - part of which would have been involved with, but not become dominated by - Brexit. And, if Labour had been successful, the types of Brexit might have been calmly and fairly resolved in the context of the broad reforms carried out from the party's manifesto. Instead, in those two years, the growing Tory leadership's uncertainty about Brexit, whether it was hard or soft, could there be a deal or no deal - led by a Prime Minister without any strategic grip or base in her party - has ended up creating two new dangerous disasters. First, Brexit itself has become the synonym for all government activity and policy. Never mind the precipitous decline for millions. Second, UKIP's racist party, with its 4 million voters, who had retreated and dissolved its own leadership by 2017, has now been recreated, by the Tory government's shambles, in the form of the Brexit party.
The Tory projection of its own crisis over Europe onto large swathes of the British population will not now simply dissolve in thin air. And neither will the second UKIP. The Corbyn led Labour leadership now need to break the momentum of this originally second rate turmoil and thereby re-instate the priority of the giant reforms desperately needed by the British people who took Labour to the brink of Government in 2017. But how?
By accepting that Brexit can now be a major problem for the British people - should the 'Brexit believers' decide that they can run British capitalism as a tax haven with 'no deal'. Then Labour should say that the Tories have now brought us very close to that very precipice. If Boris (or a mini Boris) is selected by the Tory Party that will mean all forces opposing Boris, the Tories (and the Brexit Party) have to fight together with the Labour Party for another vote. The vote might contain various options including remain in the EU, devise a close partnership with the EU outside its management, remove all links with the EU. If the Tories back Boris and the Brexit Party then the response has to be crystal clear. And this cannot be subordinate to the call for a General Election, but alongside it.
In the end Brexit (outwith its extreme versions) is not decisive for the future of the British people. And that is why making concessions in either a leave or remain direction in principle is less important than Britain's future government and the implementation of its plans. While there are definitely better and worse outcomes and the different options are not neutral regarding membership of the EU, because Brexit is less important it is therefore possible to amend a position for or against. (And it would be, for example, a wholly negative abstraction to use the Tory referendum to pretend that somehow some sort of genuine democracy was at stake here.) Nevertheless, despite these deeper realities, extreme Brexit is now immediate and Brexit in general has undoubtedly conquered the concerns and understanding of political choices in the population at large - as the Tory Party floods its European contradictions across the land they have fed the soil. This has to be faced now in order to move beyond it.
And the German Greens? If Labour now needs to punch through the Brexit wall it will then need to rally the forces that started to build around the 2017 General Election. The big majority of youth were the bedrock for Corbyn's Labour - and remain so according to social polls. But, the youth were also largely 'remainers.' And it has taken a long time for Labour to recognise their views on Brexit. There is little danger that the LibDems have purchase with Labour's young base. But the new strengths of the Greens, created by the big movements of youth to defend the planet ... that is a much larger question. Whether Europe's official Green Parties are at the centre of, or even really connected to the new climate movement's anti-system thinking is another question, and will be looked at in the next Blog.
Hi Brian Rab and John from Maryhill say hello
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