But it would be a mistake to see May's collapse as the unavoidable intransigence of a hung parliament - a condition that could certainly recur under a new Tory Prime Minister, according to most British political correspondents. Or to point to Farage's magic in capturing swathes of Tory Party members in the Euro elections, as the substantial reason to swap the Tories' leader in Parliament. May's dismissal is not just the product of the big, white, public school men, under pressure from the ancient and dwindling cadre of the Tory Party. May's failure (over Brexit) is ultimately the pressure of a ruling class, channelled through all parts of the relevant economic institutions, cliques, top universities, inns of court, Mayfair clubs and the rest, focussed on the Tory Party in Parliament. May inherited Cameron's ridiculous attempt to 'heal' the Tories (and place himself in the pantheon of Tory leaders). But Thatcher would not have agreed a referendum any more than she would have left the EU - despite all her jingoistic vitriol. She knew who ruled; who it was that could be called 'one of us.'
Now May has gone, from a (ruling) class perspective the new leadership of the Tory Party has not one but two priorities. And the first is the destruction of Corbyn's Labour Party. Removing Brexit comes a serious second.
A victory for the Labour Party based on Corbyn's 2017 Manifesto would be a disaster, a bigger disaster for the ruling class than Brexit. Why? The main Labour proposals are relatively mild in comparison, for example, of the 1945 reforms. But the reason for the ruling classes' fear is the direction of Corbyn's reforms, and the implication of their movement, in a society driving for radical change. It is the very opposite to the direction being taken by any of the major capitalist countries in the world, both economically and politically, including those led by new right wing demagogues. And it is these facts that will clarify what happens next in the British Parliament.
Boris Johnston has always held himself aloof from the European Research Group - the faction that wants a 'No Deal' Brexit. Yet he apparently supports 'No Deal'. No he doesn't. Boris supports himself. When he ran London as the Mayor, he supported 'free movement' from the EU. He praised the EU. He fitted himself in to a Labour city that is run by the the Banks and by wealth management. More importantly, much more importantly, the British ruling elites believe that Boris would beat Corbyn's Labour Party. Indeed, only Boris, who, in his Churchilian way remained on the margins, deliberately, could recompose the wreckage of years of Tory infighting - around himself. Support me or you will be defeated!
The most likely angle that Boris will take if he wins the Tory leadership is that only an early election can shift the answer to Brexit. He will face Corbyn's Labour Party's and call for a general election. If he were to win, and he has built himself as a dynamic outsider separate from the Westminster 'traitors', after a supposed victory he could do almost anything he liked.
He has two immediate options. He might try to rewind Brexit with new trade arrangements - after shouting his lack of fear of 'no deal'. Alternatively, he could do a Trump and turn a massive income tax cut in Britain turning the country in the direction of the largest cash haven in the world. (The City of London is halfway there.)
This is the political crunch. Boris Johnston is odds-on to win the Tory leadership. He will fight Corbyn's Labour Party; before Brexit if he can. And he will fight with the fullest support of all the strength and force that a ruling class can provide. He will prevaricate on Brexit while shouting the noisiest bravado. He intends to lead a a big country. He will do whatever is necessary. Brexit, delay, no Brexit, return to the EU, whatever. He has other options. The Tories, mark-Cameron and May, are dying. His real barrier is Corbyn. And that's the fight which is now starting.
No comments:
Post a Comment